Summary
From the standpoint of practical forecasting the simplest method of attack on the problem of cyclogenesis in the tropical Atlantic is through katallobaric waves, which are apparently generated along the tropical front between the SW monsoon and the NE trade. Waves initiated in the Cape Verde region move within the NE and E trade toward the Antilles with a frequency of one about every 3 or 4 days. They are usually comparatively stable but are almost invariably attended by a moderate rise in the Ts inversion level. Available data are not entirely conclusive concerning the transition from stable to unstable waves but it apparently depends upon the extent of the destruction of the Ts inversion.
The National Hurricane Center and the National Hurricane Research Laboratory joined forces in a n effort t o improvc techniques for forecasting hurricanc motion in the spring of 1959 when the latter moved its headquarters from West Palm Beach to Miami into offices adjacent to those occupied by the principal hurricane forecast office in the United States. Results now available from verification of forecasts made during the period 1954 through 1966 show that there has been a significant improvement in the accuracy of hurricane forecasts during the period of increased cooperation between the research and operational forecasting groups. This improvement is indicated by B reduction in the mean error of hurricane forecasts of approximately 10 and 12 percent, respectively, for the two principal hurricane forecast areas near the eastern coasts of the United States.
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