In this paper we introduce adaptive time step control for simulation of evolution of ice sheets. The discretization error in the approximations is estimated using "Milne's device" by comparing the result from two different methods in a predictor-corrector pair. Using a predictor-corrector pair the expensive part of the procedure, the solution of the velocity and pressure equations, is performed only once per time step and an estimate of the local error is easily obtained. The stability of the numerical solution is maintained and the accuracy is controlled by keeping the local error below a given threshold using PI-control. Depending on the threshold, the time step $\Delta t$ is bound by stability requirements or accuracy requirements. Our method takes a shorter $\Delta t$ than an implicit method but with less work in each time step and the solver is simpler. The method is analyzed theoretically with respect to stability and applied to the simulation of a 2D ice slab and a 3D circular ice sheet. %The automatically chosen $\Delta t$ is either restricted by accuracy or stability depedning on an error tolerance. The stability bounds in the experiments are explained by and agree well with the theoretical results

Accurate description of snow and firn processes is necessary for estimating the fraction of glacier surface melt that contributes to runoff. Most processes in snow and firn are to a great extent controlled by the temperature therein and in the absence of liquid water, the temperature evolution is dominated by the conductive heat exchange. The latter is controlled by the effective thermal conductivity k. Here we reconstruct the effective thermal conductivity of firn at Lomonosovfonna, Svalbard, using an optimization routine minimizing the misfit between simulated and measured subsurface temperatures and densities. The optimized k * values in the range from 0.2 to 1.6 W (m K) −1 increase downwards and over time. The results are supported by uncertainty quantification experiments, according to which k * is most sensitive to systematic errors in empirical temperature values and their estimated depths, particularly in the lower part of the vertical profile. Compared to commonly used density-based parameterizations, our k values are consistently larger, suggesting a faster conductive heat exchange in firn.

Abstract. The friction coefficient and the base topography of a stationary and a dynamic ice sheet are perturbed in two models for the ice: the full Stokes equations and the shallow shelf approximation. The sensitivity to the perturbations of the velocity and the height at the surface is quantified by solving the adjoint equations of the stress and the height equations providing weights for the perturbed data. The adjoint equations are solved numerically and the sensitivity is computed in several examples in two dimensions. A transfer matrix couples the perturbations at the base with the perturbations at the top. Comparisons are made with analytical solutions to simplified problems. The sensitivity to perturbations depends on their wavelengths and the distance to the grounding line. A perturbation in the topography has a direct effect at the ice surface above it, while a change in the friction coefficient is less visible there.

Abstract. The flow of large ice sheets and glaciers can be simulated by solving the full Stokes equations using a finite element method. The simulation is particularly sensitive to the discretization of the grounding line, which separates ice resting on bedrock and ice floating on water, and is moving with time. The boundary conditions at the ice base are enforced by Nitsche's method and a subgrid treatment of the grounding line element. Simulations with the method in two dimensions for an advancing and a retreating grounding line illustrate the performance of the method. The computed grounding line position is compared to previously published data with a fine mesh, showing that similar accuracy is obtained using subgrid modeling with more than 20-times-coarser meshes. This subgrid scheme is implemented in the two-dimensional version of the open-source code Elmer/ICE.

Abstract. Accurate description of snow and firn processes is necessary for estimating the fraction of glacier surface melt that contributes to runoff. Most processes in snow and firn are to a great extent controlled by the temperature therein and in the absence of liquid water, the temperature evolution is dominated by the conductive heat exchange. The latter is controlled by the effective thermal conductivity k. Here we reconstruct the effective thermal conductivity of firn at Lomonosovfonna, Svalbard, using an optimization routine minimizing the misfit between simulated and measured subsurface temperatures and densities. The optimized k* values lie in the range from 0.2 to 1.6 J (s m K)−1 increase downwards and over time. The results are supported by uncertainty quantification experiments, according to which k* is most sensitive to systematic errors in empirical temperature values and their estimated depths, particularly in the lower part of the vertical profile. Compared to commonly used density-based parameterizations our k values are consistently larger, suggesting a faster conductive heat exchange in firn.

In this paper we develop and implement anisotropic radial basis function methods for simulating the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers. We test the methods on two problems: the well-known benchmark ISMIP-HOM B that corresponds to a glacier size ice and a synthetic ice sheet whose geometry is inspired by the EISMINT benchmark that corresponds to a continental size ice sheet. We illustrate the advantages of the radial basis function methods over a standard finite element method. We also show how the use of anisotropic radial basis functions allows for accurate simulation of the velocities on a large ice sheet, which was not possible with standard isotropic radial basis function methods due to a large aspect ratio between the ice length and the ice thickness. Additionally, we implement a partition of unity method in order to improve the computational efficiency of the radial basis function methods.

Abstract. Ice flow forced by gravity is governed by the full Stokes (FS) equations, which are computationally expensive to solve due to the nonlinearity introduced by the rheology. Therefore, approximations to the FS equations are commonly used, especially when modeling a marine ice sheet (ice sheet, ice shelf, and/or ice stream) for 103 years or longer. The shallow ice approximation (SIA) and shallow shelf approximation (SSA) are commonly used but are accurate only for certain parts of an ice sheet. Here, we report a novel way of iteratively coupling FS and SSA that has been implemented in Elmer/Ice and applied to conceptual marine ice sheets. The FS–SSA coupling appears to be very accurate; the relative error in velocity compared to FS is below 0.5 % for diagnostic runs and below 5 % for prognostic runs. Results for grounding line dynamics obtained with the FS–SSA coupling are similar to those obtained from an FS model in an experiment with a periodical temperature forcing over 3000 years that induces grounding line advance and retreat. The rapid convergence of the FS–SSA coupling shows a large potential for reducing computation time, such that modeling a marine ice sheet for thousands of years should become feasible in the near future. Despite inefficient matrix assembly in the current implementation, computation time is reduced by 32 %, when the coupling is applied to a 3-D ice shelf.

Over the past decade, one of the largest contributors to total ice discharge across the Greenland ice sheet, Helheim Glacier, has experienced large fluctuations in ice velocity. In this study, we simulate the dynamics of Helheim, from 2007 to 2020, using the Ice‐sheet and Sea‐level System Model to identify the drivers of these large changes in ice discharge. By quantifying the impact of individual external forcing and model parameters on Helheim's modeled velocity, we find that the position of the calving front alone explains the dynamic variability of the glacier, as it has a direct and large impact on Helheim's ice velocity. The seasonal to inter‐annual variability of Helheim Glacier is, however, relatively insensitive to the choice of friction law or ice rheology factor. This study shows that more research on calving dynamics and ice–ocean interactions is required to project the future of this sector of Greenland.