Opportunities to conduct large-scale field experiments are rare, but provide a unique opportunity to reveal the complex processes that operate within natural ecosystems. Here, we review the design of existing, large-scale forest fragmentation experiments. Based on this review, we develop a design for the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems (SAFE) Project, a new forest fragmentation experiment to be located in the lowland tropical forests of Borneo (Sabah, Malaysia). The SAFE Project represents an advance on existing experiments in that it: (i) allows discrimination of the effects of landscape-level forest cover from patch-level processes; (ii) is designed to facilitate the unification of a wide range of data types on ecological patterns and processes that operate over a wide range of spatial scales; (iii) has greater replication than existing experiments; (iv) incorporates an experimental manipulation of riparian corridors; and (v) embeds the experimentally fragmented landscape within a wider gradient of land-use intensity than do existing projects. The SAFE Project represents an opportunity for ecologists across disciplines to participate in a large initiative designed to generate a broad understanding of the ecological impacts of tropical forest modification.

In the face of worldwide habitat fragmentation, managers need to devise a time frame for action. We ask how fast do understory bird species disappear from experimentally isolated plots in the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, central Amazon, Brazil. Our data consist of mist-net records obtained over a period of 13 years in 11 sites of 1, 10, and 100 hectares. The numbers of captures per species per unit time, analyzed under different simplifying assumptions, reveal a set of species-loss curves. From those declining numbers, we derive a scaling rule for the time it takes to lose half the species in a fragment as a function of its area. A 10-fold decrease in the rate of species loss requires a 1,000-fold increase in area. Fragments of 100 hectares lose one half of their species in <15 years, too short a time for implementing conservation measures.

As compared with extensive contiguous areas, small isolated habitat patches lack many species. Some species disappear after isolation; others are rarely found in any small patch, regardless of isolation. We used a 13-year data set of bird captures from a large landscape-manipulation experiment in a Brazilian Amazon forest to model the extinction-colonization dynamics of 55 species and tested basic predictions of island biogeography and metapopulation theory. From our models, we derived two metrics of species vulnerability to changes in isolation and patch area. We found a strong effect of area and a variable effect of isolation on the predicted patch occupancy by birds.

Understanding population dynamics requires models that admit the complexity of natural populations and the data ecologists obtain from them. Populations possess structure, which may be defined as ''fixed'' stages through which individuals pass, with superimposed variability among individuals and groups. Data contain missing values and inaccurate censuses. From limited data ecologists attempt to predict life history schedules and population growth.We extend the ''missing value'' framework for Bayesian analysis of structured populations to admit the heterogeneity in demography and the limitations of data that are typical of ecological populations. Our hierarchical treatment of capture-recapture data allows inference on demographic rates contained in matrix transition models for populations that may be stratified by location and by other variables. Simulations with artificial data sets demonstrate the ability of the Bayesian model to successfully estimate underlying parameters, even with incomplete census data. In contrast, traditional nonhierarchical models may lead to biased parameter estimates because of variation in recapture rates of individuals. Analyses of published demographic data on Common Terns and Taitu Hills rats illustrate the utility of the model. Predictive distributions of maturation age, survivorship, and population growth demonstrate profound impacts of population and data complexity.

BackgroundFailure to detect a disease agent or vector where it actually occurs constitutes a serious drawback in epidemiology. In the pervasive situation where no sampling technique is perfect, the explicit analytical treatment of detection failure becomes a key step in the estimation of epidemiological parameters. We illustrate this approach with a study of Attalea palm tree infestation by Rhodnius spp. (Triatominae), the most important vectors of Chagas disease (CD) in northern South America.Methodology/Principal FindingsThe probability of detecting triatomines in infested palms is estimated by repeatedly sampling each palm. This knowledge is used to derive an unbiased estimate of the biologically relevant probability of palm infestation. We combine maximum-likelihood analysis and information-theoretic model selection to test the relationships between environmental covariates and infestation of 298 Amazonian palm trees over three spatial scales: region within Amazonia, landscape, and individual palm. Palm infestation estimates are high (40–60%) across regions, and well above the observed infestation rate (24%). Detection probability is higher (∼0.55 on average) in the richest-soil region than elsewhere (∼0.08). Infestation estimates are similar in forest and rural areas, but lower in urban landscapes. Finally, individual palm covariates (accumulated organic matter and stem height) explain most of infestation rate variation.Conclusions/SignificanceIndividual palm attributes appear as key drivers of infestation, suggesting that CD surveillance must incorporate local-scale knowledge and that peridomestic palm tree management might help lower transmission risk. Vector populations are probably denser in rich-soil sub-regions, where CD prevalence tends to be higher; this suggests a target for research on broad-scale risk mapping. Landscape-scale effects indicate that palm triatomine populations can endure deforestation in rural areas, but become rarer in heavily disturbed urban settings. Our methodological approach has wide application in infectious disease research; by improving eco-epidemiological parameter estimation, it can also significantly strengthen vector surveillance-control strategies.

BackgroundMosquito-borne pathogens pose major public health challenges worldwide. With vaccines or effective drugs still unavailable for most such pathogens, disease prevention heavily relies on vector control. To date, however, mosquito control has proven difficult, with low breeding-site coverage during control campaigns identified as a major drawback. A novel tactic exploits the egg-laying behavior of mosquitoes to have them disseminate tiny particles of a potent larvicide, pyriproxyfen (PPF), from resting to breeding sites, thus improving coverage. This approach has yielded promising results at small spatial scales, but its wider applicability remains unclear.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe conducted a four-month trial within a 20-month study to investigate mosquito-driven dissemination of PPF dust-particles from 100 ‘dissemination stations’ (DSs) deployed in a 7-ha sub-area to surveillance dwellings and sentinel breeding sites (SBSs) distributed over an urban neighborhood of about 50 ha. We assessed the impact of the trial by measuring juvenile mosquito mortality and adult mosquito emergence in each SBS-month. Using data from 1,075 dwelling-months, 2,988 SBS-months, and 29,922 individual mosquitoes, we show that mosquito-disseminated PPF yielded high coverage of dwellings (up to 100%) and SBSs (up to 94.3%). Juvenile mosquito mortality in SBSs (about 4% at baseline) increased by over one order of magnitude during PPF dissemination (about 75%). This led to a >10-fold decrease of adult mosquito emergence from SBSs, from approximately 1,000–3,000 adults/month before to about 100 adults/month during PPF dissemination.Conclusions/SignificanceBy expanding breeding-site coverage and boosting juvenile mosquito mortality, a strategy based on mosquito-disseminated PPF has potential to substantially enhance mosquito control. Sharp declines in adult mosquito emergence can lower vector/host ratios, reducing the risk of disease outbreaks. This approach is a very promising complement to current and novel mosquito control strategies; it will probably be especially relevant for the control of urban disease vectors, such as Aedes and Culex species, that often cause large epidemics.

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Abstract. Perturbation analysis is a powerful tool to study population and community dynamics. This article describes expressions for sensitivity metrics reflecting changes in equilibrium occupancy resulting from small changes in the vital rates of patch occupancy dynamics (i.e., probabilities of local patch colonization and extinction). We illustrate our approach with a case study of occupancy dynamics of Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) nesting territories. Examination of the hypothesis of system equilibrium suggests that the system satisfies equilibrium conditions. Estimates of vital rates obtained using patch occupancy models are used to estimate equilibrium patch occupancy of eagles. We then compute estimates of sensitivity metrics and discuss their implications for eagle population ecology and management. Finally, we discuss the intuition underlying our sensitivity metrics and then provide examples of ecological questions that can be addressed using perturbation analyses. For instance, the sensitivity metrics lead to predictions about the relative importance of local colonization and local extinction probabilities in influencing equilibrium occupancy for rare and common species.