We examine how the cross border banking loan liabilities (syndication and securitization loans) and the exchange rate affect the Turkish banking industry profitability using a balanced panel data for the period 2003Q1-2016Q3. We study with different subsamples and model specifications. Overall, we find that the banking sector financial inflows are positively associated with bank profitability. Specifically, the results show that the banking sector cross border inflows have significant and positive impact on return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and on net interest margin (NIM). The long-term inflows play a more important role than the short-term inflows in explaining profitability in all specifications while short-term inflows have no any significant effect on these profitability indicators. Moreover, we show that the exchange rate has significant and negative impact on ROA and ROE and has insignificant effect on NIM. Our findings are more notable in private banks compared to the whole sample. Given the fact that the existing studies examine the banking profitability through aggregate capital inflows and maturity mismatch, this study will fill a meaningful gap in emerging market literature.
Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye'deki geleneksel ve katılım bankaları arasında kârlılığı belirleyen faktörleri incelemek ve iki banka türü arasındaki ayırıcı unsurları tespit etmektir. 2007-2018 yılları arası çeyreklik veri seti kullanılarak yapılan ekonometrik çalışmada GMM tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, iki banka türü arasında önemli farklılıklar bulunmaktadır. Detaylı olarak bakıldığında, katılım bankalarının aktif ve sermaye kârlılığı geleneksel bankalardan daha yüksektir. Mevduat faizi ve kâr payı oranları açısından bakıldığında, katılım bankaları geleneksel bankalardan daha az ödeme yapmaktadırlar. Komisyon ücreti gelirlerinin özellikle geleneksel bankalar açısından daha önemli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Son olarak, kriz dönemlerinde katılım bankalarının geleneksel bankalara göre daha iyi performans gösterdikleri ortaya konulmuştur.
We analyze the determinants of default and prepayment in the Turkish mortgage market by utilizing data obtained from a large commercial bank. Our main findings suggest that default is positively affected by a high loan to value ratio and term length of mortgages, and negatively affected by certain quantitative easing periods, good expectations regarding the future, the ratio of real house prices to the size of the economy and mortgage customer's high school and above level of education and being married. The probability of prepayment rises with the increase in variables such as the gain ratio due to prepayment, high school and above level of education of the mortgage customer, size of the GDP and the ratio of real house prices to GDP. We also find that the likelihoods of both the cases of default and prepayment are locally maximized when nearly 60% of the term is reached.
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