Introduction Syphilis is a sexually transmitted disease (STD) caused by Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum. In 2016, it was declared an epidemic in Brazil due to its high morbidity and mortality rates, mainly in cases of maternal syphilis (MS) and congenital syphilis (CS) with unfavorable outcomes. This paper aimed to mathematically describe the relationship between MS and CS cases reported in Brazil over the interval from 2010 to 2020, considering the likelihood of diagnosis and effective and timely maternal treatment during prenatal care, thus supporting the decision-making and coordination of syphilis response efforts. Methods The model used in this paper was based on stochastic Petri net (SPN) theory. Three different regressions, including linear, polynomial, and logistic regression, were used to obtain the weights of an SPN model. To validate the model, we ran 100 independent simulations for each probability of an untreated MS case leading to CS case (PUMLC) and performed a statistical t-test to reinforce the results reported herein. Results According to our analysis, the model for predicting congenital syphilis cases consistently achieved an average accuracy of 93% or more for all tested probabilities of an untreated MS case leading to CS case. Conclusions The SPN approach proved to be suitable for explaining the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) dataset using the range of 75–95% for the probability of an untreated MS case leading to a CS case (PUMLC). In addition, the model’s predictive power can help plan actions to fight against the disease.

With syphilis cases on the rise, Brazil declared an epidemic in 2016. To address the consequent public health crisis, the Ministry of Health laid out a rapid response plan, namely, the “Syphilis No!” Project (SNP), a national instrument to fight the disease which encompasses four dimensions: (a) management and governance, (b) surveillance, (c) comprehensive care, and (d) strengthening of educommunication. In the dimension of education, the SNP developed the learning pathway “Syphilis and other Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs)” to strengthen and promote Health Education. This pathway features 54 Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), delivered through the Virtual Learning Environment of the Brazilian Health System (AVASUS). This paper analyzes the impacts of the learning pathway “Syphilis and other STIs” on the response to the epidemic in Brazil, highlighting the educational process of the learning pathway and its social implications from the perspective of the United Nations' 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals. Three distinct databases were used to organize the educational data: the learning pathway “Syphilis and other STIs” from AVASUS, the National Registry of HealthCare Facilities from the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH), and the Brazilian Occupation Classification, from the Ministry of Labor. The analysis provides a comprehensive description of the 54 courses of the learning pathway, which has 177,732 enrollments and 93,617 participants from all Brazilian regions, especially the Southeast, which accounts for the highest number of enrollees. Additionally, it is worth noting that students living abroad also enrolled in the courses. Data characterization provided a demographic study focused on the course participants' profession and level of care practiced, revealing that the majority (85%) worked in primary and secondary healthcare. These practitioners are the target audience of the learning pathway and, accordingly, are part of the personnel directly engaged in healthcare services that fight the syphilis epidemic in Brazil.

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