The systematic study of multiple sclerosis (MS) in populations, started in 1929 by Sydney Allison, now consists of over 400 publications dealing with the prevalence of MS throughout the world. However, any attempt to redefine the pattern of geographical differences in MS frequency remains as difficult as ever. The comparison of prevalence studies carried out in different areas and times is made difficult by the variability in surveyed population sizes, age structures, ethnic origins and composition, and the difficult quantification of numerators, especially regarding the recognition of benign and very early cases. Additionally, complete case ascertainment depends on access to medical care, local medical expertise, number of neurologists, accessibility and availability of new diagnostic procedures, the degree of public awareness about MS, and the investigators' zeal and resources. Critical examination of the more recent data on MS prevalence leads to some revisions of previously held concepts, the most interesting of which is the appreciation of the greater influence of genetic factors on disease acquisition. The rarity of MS among Samis, Turkmen, Uzbeks, Kazakhs, Kyrgyzis, native Siberians, North and South Amerindians, Chinese, Japanese, African blacks and New Zealand Maoris, as well as the high risk among Sardinians, Parsis and Palestinians, clearly indicate that the different susceptibilities of distinct racial and ethnic groups are an important determinant of the uneven geographic distribution of the disease. The updated distribution of MS in Europe, showing many exceptions to the previously described north-south gradient, requires more explanation than simply a prevalence-latitude relationship. Prevalence data imply that racial and ethnic differences are important in influencing the worldwide distribution of MS and that its geography must be interpreted in terms of the probable discontinuous distribution of genetic susceptibility alleles, which can however be modified by environment. Because the environmental and genetic determinants of geographic gradients are by no means mutually exclusive, the race versus place controversy is, to some extent, a useless and sterile debate.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic and potentially highly disabling disorder with considerable social impact and economic consequences. It is the major cause of nontraumatic disability in young adults. The social costs associated with MS are high because of its long duration, the early loss of productivity, the need for assistance in activities of daily living and the use of immunomodulatory treatments and multidisciplinary health care. Available MS epidemiological estimates are aimed at providing a measure of the disease burden in Europe. The total estimated prevalence rate of MS for the past three decades is 83 per 100 000 with higher rates in northern countries and a female:male ratio around 2.0. Prevalence rates are higher for women for all countries considered. The highest prevalence rates have been estimated for the age group 35-64 years for both sexes and for all countries. The estimated European mean annual MS incidence rate is 4.3 cases per 100 000. The mean distribution by disease course and by disability is also reported. Despite the wealth of epidemiological data on MS, comparing epidemiological indices among European countries is a hard task and often leads only to approximate estimates. This represents a major methodological concern when evaluating the MS burden in Europe and when implementing specific cost-ofillness studies.

Background Genomewide association studies of autoimmune diseases have mapped hundreds of susceptibility regions in the genome. However, only for a few association signals has the causal gene been identified, and for even fewer have the causal variant and underlying mechanism been defined. Coincident associations of DNA variants affecting both the risk of autoimmune disease and quantitative immune variables provide an informative route to explore disease mechanisms and drug-targetable pathways. Methods Using case–control samples from Sardinia, Italy, we performed a genomewide association study in multiple sclerosis followed by TNFSF13B locus–specific association testing in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Extensive phenotyping of quantitative immune variables, sequence-based fine mapping, cross-population and cross-phenotype analyses, and gene-expression studies were used to identify the causal variant and elucidate its mechanism of action. Signatures of positive selection were also investigated. Results A variant in TNFSF13B, encoding the cytokine and drug target B-cell activating factor (BAFF), was associated with multiple sclerosis as well as SLE. The disease-risk allele was also associated with up-regulated humoral immunity through increased levels of soluble BAFF, B lymphocytes, and immunoglobulins. The causal variant was identified: an insertion–deletion variant, GCTGT→A (in which A is the risk allele), yielded a shorter transcript that escaped microRNA inhibition and increased production of soluble BAFF, which in turn up-regulated humoral immunity. Population genetic signatures indicated that this autoimmunity variant has been evolutionarily advantageous, most likely by augmenting resistance to malaria. Conclusions A TNFSF13B variant was associated with multiple sclerosis and SLE, and its effects were clarified at the population, cellular, and molecular levels. (Funded by the Italian Foundation for Multiple Sclerosis and others.)

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