Land vegetation is currently taking up large amounts of atmospheric CO2, possibly due to tree growth stimulation. Extant models predict that this growth stimulation will continue to cause a net carbon uptake this century. However, there are indications that increased growth rates may shorten trees′ lifespan and thus recent increases in forest carbon stocks may be transient due to lagged increases in mortality. Here we show that growth-lifespan trade-offs are indeed near universal, occurring across almost all species and climates. This trade-off is directly linked to faster growth reducing tree lifespan, and not due to covariance with climate or environment. Thus, current tree growth stimulation will, inevitably, result in a lagged increase in canopy tree mortality, as is indeed widely observed, and eventually neutralise carbon gains due to growth stimulation. Results from a strongly data-based forest simulator confirm these expectations. Extant Earth system model projections of global forest carbon sink persistence are likely too optimistic, increasing the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

The Brazilian cerrado, a hotspot of biodiversity, has suffered intense fragmentation in the last decades with an associated increase in areas subjected to edge effects. Plant phenology may be influenced by abiotic changes induced by edge effects, such as increases in temperature and light. We studied the phenology of the guamirim (Myrcia guianensis, Myrtaceae) and its relation to local abiotic factors in a Brazilian cerrado area between 2005 and 2011, aiming to answer: (i) whether M. guianensis phenology differs between the edge and the interior and/or between cardinal orientations at the study site, given that environments facing east are lighter and warmer than environments facing south; and (ii) how microenvironmental factors influence the observed phenological patterns. We sampled 92 individuals in 36 transects (25m x 2m), distributed along the edge and in the interior (100m from the edge) of the east and south faces. Myrcia guianensis presented seasonal patterns of leafing and reproduction, but only reproduction was influenced by microenvironmental conditions. Individuals on the east edge-the warmest and driest environment with the most light-presented with the highest synchrony and intensity of reproductive phenophases, followed by the east interior, south interior and south edge. Flowering and fruiting onset and peak dates occurred around 20 days earlier on the east edge than the south face. Edge conditions, primarily cardinal orientation, and associated higher temperatures and light incidence influenced the reproductive phenology of M. guianensis and the onset of flowering and fruiting. We suggest that edges could be used to evaluate plant responses to the temperature increases predicted for future climate change scenarios.

Forests are the largest terrestrial biomass pool, with over half of this biomass stored in the highly productive tropical lowland forests. The future evolution of forest biomass depends critically on the response of tree longevity and growth rates to future climate. We present an analysis of the variation in tree longevity and growth rate using tree-ring data of 3,343 populations and 438 tree species and assess how climate controls growth and tree longevity across world biomes. Tropical trees grow, on average, two times faster compared to trees from temperate and boreal biomes and live significantly shorter, on average (186 ± 138 y compared to 322 ± 201 y outside the tropics). At the global scale, growth rates and longevity covary strongly with temperature. Within the warm tropical lowlands, where broadleaf species dominate the vegetation, we find consistent decreases in tree longevity with increasing aridity, as well as a pronounced reduction in longevity above mean annual temperatures of 25.4 °C. These independent effects of temperature and water availability on tree longevity in the tropics are consistent with theoretical predictions of increases in evaporative demands at the leaf level under a warmer and drier climate and could explain observed increases in tree mortality in tropical forests, including the Amazon, and shifts in forest composition in western Africa. Our results suggest that conditions supporting only lower tree longevity in the tropical lowlands are likely to expand under future drier and especially warmer climates.

We aimed to understand the effect of rock outcrops on the growth of Podocarpus lambertii within a microrefuge. Our hypothesis holds that the growth and survival of this species depend on the regional climate decoupling provided by rock outcrops. To test this hypothesis, we characterized the microclimate of (1) surrounding vegetation, (2) rock outcrop corridors, and (3) adjacencies. We assessed population structure by collecting data of specimen stem diameter and height. We also assessed differences between vegetation associated or not with outcrops using satellite imaging. For dendrochronological analyses, we sampled 42 individuals. Tree rings of 31 individuals were dated, and climate-growth relationships were tested. Rock outcrops produce a favorable microclimate by reducing average temperature by 4.9 °C and increasing average air humidity by 12 %. They also reduce the variability of atmospheric temperature by 42 % and air humidity by 20 % supporting a vegetation with higher leaf area index. Within this vegetation, specimen height was strongly constrained by the outcrop height. Although temperature and precipitation modulate this species growth, temperature-induced stress is the key limiting growth factor for this population of P. lambertii. We conclude that this species growth and survival depend on the presence of rock outcrops. These topography elements decouple regional climate in a favorable way for this species growth. However, these benefits are restricted to the areas sheltered by rock outcrops. Although this microrefuge supported P. lambertii growth so far, it is unclear whether this protection would be sufficient to withstand the stress of future climate changes.