Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is one of the most important players in global agricultural trade. They have vast potential to strengthen their position as a result of the region's opportunities to increase agricultural production when combined with growing global demand, which could help the region's economy thrive. To discover the LAC potential agricultural trade pattern, this paper aims to analyse the determinants of LAC agricultural bilateral export for the period 1995–2019. The gravity model of trade was employed by estimating various Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) models including zero trade flows for panel data. The findings show that importers' GDP of LAC countries has a greater impact on agricultural trade compared to LAC exporters. Cultural similarities (common language) and countries' participation in Southern Common Market [Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR)] stimulated agri-food export. Conversely, distance (transportation), past colonial links, and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) raised trade costs, having a negative impact on the export of agricultural products. The impacts of environmental regulations are ambiguous. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating the factors of agri-food export in LAC countries, which can be an important instrument for decision-makers adjusting agricultural trade policy.
This article delivers a theoretical overview of the gravity model and some of its main applications. The goal is as well to provide some criticism and to discuss the effectiveness of this widely used model. The model, in fact, not only did not lose its appeal over time but, on the contrary, it continued to develop and to become more reliable and relevant. It becomes clear that, although it has some problems and limitations, the gravity model is still a widely used and compelling tool, especially in the trade flow area. Jelen cikk a gravitációs modellról és annak fő alkalmazásairól nyújt áttekintést. A tanulmány további célja a széleskörben használt modell hatékonyságának megvitatása. A modell nem csak, hogy nem veszített népszerűségéből, hanem megbízhatóbbá és relevánsabbá vált. Világos, hogy a modell korlátai ellenére még mindig széleskörben bevett vizsgálati eszköz, különösen a kereskedelem terén.
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is one of the most important players in global agricultural trade, being among the global leaders in the production and exports of agricultural and fisheries commodities and accounting for 15% of the world’s average agri-food export from 1995 to 2019. The region have vast potential to strengthen their position as a result of the region's opportunities to increase agricultural production when combined with growing global demand, which could help the region's economy thrive. The purpose of the dissertation is to provide a consistent analysis of the agri-food trade patterns for Latin America and the Caribbean. determinants of LAC agricultural bilateral export for the period 1995-2019 and export competitiveness of the sector in the same period. This research explored the LAC agricultural trade patterns and export competitiveness through the analysis of the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index formulated by Balassa (1965) and its modifications – SRCA (Symmetric Revealed Comparative Advantage), RTA (Relative Trade Advantage, and RC (Revealed Competitiveness) – in the agricultural sector for the period of 1995-2019, indicating which countries in the region are currently competitive and in what agricultural products. Panel data econometrics was used to identify the conditioning factors lying behind trade flow and the gravity model of trade was employed, by estimating various Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) models including zero trade flows, to determine how bilateral cultural characteristics affect LAC agri-food export. Throughout the research period, the results indicated that Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico were the TOP agri-food exporters in LAC. The highest RCA, SRCA, and RTA were found in Guatemala, whereas the greatest RC was found in Argentina. At the product level analysis, oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit, industrial or medicinal plants, and straw and fodder (HS12) were the most exported items at the 2-digit level. Coffee, tea, mate and spices (HS-09) was the most competitive group product in the worldwide agri-market. In terms of agri-trade flow determinants, findings show that importers' GDP of LAC countries had a greater impact on agricultural trade compared to LAC exporters. Cultural similarities (common language) and countries' participation in Southern Common Market [Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR)] stimulated agri-food export. Conversely, distance (transportation), past colonial links, and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) raised trade costs, having a negative impact on the export of agricultural products. The impacts of environmental regulations are ambiguous.
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries are among the global leaders in the production and exports of agricultural and fisheries commodities, accounting for 15% of the world’s average agri-food export from 1995 to 2019. With rising global market competitiveness, considering the agri-food sector, it is important to assess if the region can compete against other global rivals, and in what products. Accounting for regional potential economic power, remarkable agricultural food export and market expansion, this paper explored the LAC agricultural trade patterns and export competitiveness through the analysis of the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, and its modifications - SRCA (Symmetric Revealed Comparative Advantage), RTA (Relative Trade Advantage, and RC (Revealed Competitiveness) - in the agricultural sector for the period of 1995-2019. This paper contributes to the literature by presenting the export characteristics in Latin American developing countries, which can be an important instrument for decision-makers in the agricultural trade policy. Throughout the research period, the results indicated that Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico were the TOP agri-food exporters in LAC. The highest RCA, SRCA, and RTA were found in Guatemala, whereas the greatest RC was found in Argentina. At the product level analysis, oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit, industrial or medicinal plants, and straw and fodder (HS12) were the most exported items at the 2-digit level. Fruit and nuts, edible; peel of citrus fruit or melons (HS08) had the most competitiveness in the worldwide market, with the highest SRCA and RC indices, whereas coffee, tea, mate, and spices (HS9) had the highest BRCA and RTA values. The evidence suggests that among the TOP 10 exporters in LAC, all indices in the global agri-food trade are said to be relatively stable, whereas survival rates do not persist over time.
A new wave of Populism has been on the ascent around the world. In Brazil, the situation is not different, and the populist rhetoric strongly seized the most recent presidential election in 2018. The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons for President Jair Bolsonaro’s (considered a populist politician) victory. The potential motivations for this triumph are discussed in this paper, with the finding that a multidimensional crisis gripped the country in the years prior to the election, leading people to sympathise with those who were in opposition to the dominant party, which culminated in a heavily divisive presidential campaign. The nation was engulfed by an economic depression that coincided with a political crisis, which had legal, social, and even cultural repercussions, with polarisation and corruption playing key roles. The paper also explores the multifaceted phenomenon of populism, and why Bolsonaro is considered to be a populist; the latter mainly related to his appealing speeches, in which he tried to show himself as a politician of the people who governs for them, in opposition to the villainous establishment.
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