In this paper we propose and solve a real options model for the optimal adoption of an electric vehicle. A policymaker promotes the abeyance of fossil-fueled vehicles through an incentive, and the representative fossil-fueled vehicle's owner decides the time at which buying an electric vehicle, while minimizing a certain expected cost. This involves a combination of various types of costs: the stochastic opportunity cost of driving one-unit distance with a traditional fossil-fueled vehicle instead of an electric one, the cost associated to traffic bans, and the net purchase cost. After determining the optimal switching time and the minimal cost function for a general diffusive opportunity cost, we specialize to the case of a mean-reverting process. In such a setting, we provide a model calibration on real data from Italy, and we study the dependency of the optimal switching time with respect to the model's parameters. Moreover, we study the effect of traffic bans and incentive on the expected optimal switching time. We observe that incentive and traffic bans on fossil-fueled transport can be used as effective tools in the hand of the policymaker to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles and hence to reduce air pollution.
International trade is based on a set of complex relationships between different countries that can be modelled as an extremely dense network of interconnected agents. On the one hand, this network might favour the economic growth of countries, but on the other, it can also favour the diffusion of diseases, such as COVID-19. In this paper, we study whether, and to what extent, the topology of the trade network can explain the rate of COVID-19 diffusion and mortality across countries. We compute the countries’ centrality measures and we apply the community detection methodology based on communicability distance. We then use these measures as focal regressors in a negative binomial regression framework. In doing so, we also compare the effects of different measures of centrality. Our results show that the numbers of infections and fatalities are larger in countries with a higher centrality in the global trade network.
The persistence probability is a statistical index that has been proposed to detect one or more communities embedded in a network. Even though its definition is straightforward, e.g, the probability that a random walker remains in a group of nodes, it has been seldom applied possibly for the difficulty of developing an efficient algorithm to calculate it. Here, we propose a new mathematical programming model to find the community with the largest persistence probability. The model is integer fractional programming, but it can be reduced to mixed-integer linear programming with an appropriate variable substitution. Nevertheless, the problem can be solved in a reasonable time for networks of small size only, therefore we developed some heuristic procedures to approximate the optimal solution. First, we elaborated a randomized greedy-ascent method, taking advantage of a peculiar data structure to generate feasible solutions fast. After analyzing the greedy output and determining where the optimal solution is eventually located, we implemented improving procedures based on a local exchange, but applying different long term diversification principles, that are based on variable neighborhood search and random restart. Next, we applied the algorithms on simulated graphs that reproduce accurately the clustering characteristics found in real networks to determine the reliability and the effectiveness of our methodology. Finally, we applied our method to two real networks, comparing our findings to what found by two well-known alternative community detection procedures.
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