This paper investigates Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall for CAC 40, S&P 500, Wheat and Crude Oil indexes during the 2008 financial crisis. We show an underestimation of the risk of loss for the unconditional VaR models as compared with the conditional models. This underestimation is stronger using the historical VaR approach than when using the extreme values theory VaR model. Even in 2008 financial crisis, the conditional EVT model is more accurate and reliable for predicting the asset risk losses. Banks have no interest in using it because the Basel II agreement penalizes banks using accuracy models like the conditional EVT model, and this is the case for the assets being studied in this paper.

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The purpose of this paper is to analyse capital structure and its dynamics for farms in Poland, a leading European Union producer. The theoretical framework is based on the trade-off and pecking order theories of capital structure. We use data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), which is representative of Polish professional farms during the period 2009-2018. We adopt a dynamic partial adjustment model using the generalized method of moments in order to explain the financing of farms through debt. The results show that Polish farms exhibit low target levels of debt, which they adjust dynamically, thus partially validating the trade-off theory. While size and growth opportunities positively influence the indebtedness of farms, profitability and land have the opposite effect. Polish farmers therefore use available internal funds, especially retained earnings, as a substitute for debt, in line with the pecking order theory.