BackgroundGiven current neglect for Chagas disease in public health programs in Mexico, future healthcare and economic development policies will need a more robust model to analyze costs and impacts of timely clinical attention of infected populations.Methodology/Principal FindingsA Markov decision model was constructed to simulate the natural history of a Chagas disease cohort in Mexico and to project the associated short and long-term clinical outcomes and corresponding costs. The lifetime cost for a timely diagnosed and treated Chagas disease patient is US$ 10,160, while the cost for an undiagnosed individual is US$ 11,877. The cost of a diagnosed and treated case increases 24-fold from early acute to indeterminate stage. The major cost component for lifetime cost was working days lost, between 44% and 75%, depending on the program scenario for timely diagnosis and treatment.Conclusions/SignificanceIn the long term, it is cheaper to diagnose and treat chagasic patients early, instead of doing nothing. This finding by itself argues for the need to shift current policy, in order to prioritize and attend this neglected disease for the benefit of social and economic development, which implies including treatment drugs in the national formularies. Present results are even more relevant, if one considers that timely diagnosis and treatment can arrest clinical progression and enhance a chronic patient's quality of life.

BackgroundThe study of human B cell response to dengue virus (DENV) infection is critical to understand serotype-specific protection and the cross-reactive sub-neutralizing response. Whereas the first is beneficial and thus represents the ultimate goal of vaccination, the latter has been implicated in the development of severe disease, which occurs in a small, albeit significant, fraction of secondary DENV infections. Both primary and secondary infections are associated with the production of poly-reactive and cross-reactive IgG antibodies.MethodsTo gain insight into the effect of DENV infection on the B cell repertoire, we used VH region high-throughput cDNA sequencing of the peripheral blood IgG B cell compartment of 19 individuals during the acute phase of infection. For 11 individuals, a second sample obtained 6 months later was analyzed for comparison. Probabilities of sequencing antibody secreting cells or memory B cells were estimated using second-order Monte Carlo simulation.ResultsWe found that in acute disease there is an increase in IgG B cell diversity and changes in the relative use of segments IGHV1-2, IGHV1-18, and IGHV1-69. Somewhat unexpectedly, an overall low proportion of somatic hypermutated antibody genes was observed during the acute phase plasmablasts, particularly in secondary infections and those cases with more severe disease.ConclusionsOur data are consistent with an innate-like antiviral recognition system mediated by B cells using defined germ-line coded B cell receptors, which could provide a rapid germinal center-independent antibody response during the early phase of infection. A model describing concurrent T-dependent and T-independent B cell responses in the context of DENV infection is proposed, which incorporates the selection of B cells using hypomutated IGHV segments and their potential role in poly/cross-reactivity. Its formal demonstration could lead to a definition of its potential implication in antibody-dependent enhancement, and may contribute to rational vaccine development efforts.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13073-016-0276-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundAn alternative approach to the traditional model of radiologists interpreting screening mammography is necessary due to the shortage of radiologists to interpret screening mammograms in many countries.MethodsWe evaluated the performance of 15 Mexican radiographers, also known as radiologic technologists, in the interpretation of screening mammography after a 6 months training period in a screening setting. Fifteen radiographers received 6 months standardized training with radiologists in the interpretation of screening mammography using the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) system. A challenging test set of 110 cases developed by the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium was used to evaluate their performance. We estimated sensitivity, specificity, false positive rates, likelihood ratio of a positive test (LR+) and the area under the subject-specific Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for diagnostic accuracy. A mathematical model simulating the consequences in costs and performance of two hypothetical scenarios compared to the status quo in which a radiologist reads all screening mammograms was also performed.ResultsRadiographer’s sensitivity was comparable to the sensitivity scores achieved by U.S. radiologists who took the test but their false-positive rate was higher. Median sensitivity was 73.3 % (Interquartile range, IQR: 46.7–86.7 %) and the median false positive rate was 49.5 % (IQR: 34.7–57.9 %). The median LR+ was 1.4 (IQR: 1.3-1.7 %) and the median AUC was 0.6 (IQR: 0.6–0.7). A scenario in which a radiographer reads all mammograms first, and a radiologist reads only those that were difficult for the radiographer, was more cost-effective than a scenario in which either the radiographer or radiologist reads all mammograms.ConclusionsGiven the comparable sensitivity achieved by Mexican radiographers and U.S. radiologists on a test set, screening mammography interpretation by radiographers appears to be a possible adjunct to radiologists in countries with shortages of radiologists. Further studies are required to assess the effectiveness of different training programs in order to obtain acceptable screening accuracy, as well as the best approaches for the use of non-physician readers to interpret screening mammography.

An estimated 2 million inhabitants are infected with Chagas disease in Mexico, with highest prevalence coinciding with highest demographic density in the southern half of the country. After vector-borne transmission, Trypanosoma cruzi is principally transmitted to humans via blood transfusion. Despite initiation of serological screening of blood donations or donors for T. cruzi since 1990 in most Latin American countries, Mexico only finally included mandatory serological screening nationwide in official Norms in 2012. Most recent regulatory changes and segmented blood services in Mexico may affect compliance of mandatory screening guidelines. The objective of this study was to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for total compliance of current guidelines from both Mexican primary healthcare and regular salaried worker health service institutions: the Secretary of Health and the Mexican Institute for Social Security. We developed a bi-modular model to analyze compliance using a decision tree for the most common screening algorithms for each health institution, and a Markov transition model for the natural history of illness and care. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio based on life-years gained is US$ 383 for the Secretary of Health, while the cost for an additional life-year gained is US$ 463 for the Social Security Institute. The results of the present study suggest that due to incomplete compliance of Mexico’s national legislation during 2013 and 2014, the MoH has failed to confirm 15,162 T. cruzi infections, has not prevented 2,347 avoidable infections, and has lost 333,483 life-years. Although there is a vast difference in T. cruzi prevalence between Bolivia and Mexico, Bolivia established mandatory blood screening for T.cruzi in 1996 and until 2002 detected and discarded 11,489 T. cruzi -infected blood units and prevented 2,879 potential infections with their transfusion blood screening program. In the first two years of Mexico’s mandated program, the two primary institutions failed to prevent due to incomplete compliance more potential infections than those gained from the first five years of Bolivia’s program. Full regulatory compliance should be clearly understood as mandatory for the sake of blood security, and its monitoring and analysis in Mexico should be part of the health authority’s responsibility.

Worldwide, rotavirus infection has been a leading cause of severe diarrhea morbidity and mortality. Two rotavirus vaccines have been used in the National Immunization Program (NIP) in Mexico; two-dose Rotarix from 2006 to 2011 and three-dose RotaTeq since 2011. This study assessed coverage (receiving at least one dose or full dose series) in eligible infants, compliance (% completing dose series and % completing series on schedule) in eligible infants vaccinated with Rotarix (2010) versus RotaTeq (2012), using Mexican Social Security Institute data nationwide and by regions.In 2010, 80.7% received at least one dose of Rotarix, 75.6% received both doses and 57.0% received both doses on schedule. In 2012, 85.7% received at least one dose of RotaTeq, 61.0% received all three doses and 43.2% received all three doses on schedule. More eligible infants received all doses with Rotarix versus RotaTeq (p < 0.001). Among infants vaccinated with Rotarix versus RotaTeq, 93.7% versus 71.1% completed full series (p < 0.001), and 75.5% versus 70.9% completed full series on schedule (p = 0.105), respectively. The full series coverage and compliance decreased in all regions with RotaTeq compared with Rotarix. In conclusion, rotavirus vaccination has successfully reduced morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years in Mexico. This study found significant differences in full series coverage and compliance among infants and a higher proportion of completed scheduled at an earlier age in Mexico when comparing a two-dose vaccine in 2010 with a three-dose vaccine in 2012. Such differences might need to be taken into consideration to maximize NIP benefits, including early protection of the rotavirus vaccination program.

Dengue virus has shown a complex pattern of transmission across Latin America over the last two decades. In an attempt to explain the permanence of the disease in regions subjected to drought seasons lasting over six months, various hypotheses have been proposed. These include transovarial transmission, forest reservoirs and asymptomatic human virus carriers. Dengue virus is endemic in Mexico, a country in which half of the population is seropositive. Seropositivity is a risk factor for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever upon a second encounter with the dengue virus. Since Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever can cause death, it is important to develop epidemiological mathematical tools that enable policy makers to predict regions potentially at risk for a dengue epidemic. We formulated a mathematical model of dengue transmission, considering both human behavior and environmental conditions pertinent to the transmission of the disease. When data on past human population density, temperature and rainfall were entered into this model, it provided an accurate picture of the actual spread of dengue over recent years in four states (representing two climactic conditions) in Mexico.

The strategies included in the optimal method for expanding the program produce a cost per life-year saved of less than two times the GNP per capita and hence are cost-effective according to WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health criteria.

We present a new four-body knowledge-based potential for recognizing the native state of proteins from their misfolded states. This potential was extracted from a large set of protein structures determined by X-ray crystallography using BetaMol, a software based on the recent theory of the beta-complex (β-complex) and quasi-triangulation of the Voronoi diagram of spheres. This geometric construct reflects the size difference among atoms in their full Euclidean metric; property not accounted for in a typical 3D Delaunay triangulation. The ability of this potential to identify the native conformation over a large set of decoys was evaluated. Experiments show that this potential outperforms a potential constructed with a classical Delaunay triangulation in decoy discrimination tests. The addition of a statistical hydrogen bond potential to our four-body potential allows a significant improvement in the decoy discrimination, in such a way that we are able to predict successfully the native structure in 90% of cases.