This study presents a Monte Carlo method (CMSY) for estimating fisheries reference points from catch, resilience and qualitative stock status information on data‐limited stocks. It also presents a Bayesian state‐space implementation of the Schaefer production model (BSM), fitted to catch and biomass or catch‐per‐unit‐of‐effort (CPUE) data. Special emphasis was given to derive informative priors for productivity, unexploited stock size, catchability and biomass from population dynamics theory. Both models gave good predictions of the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase r, unexploited stock size k and maximum sustainable yield MSY when validated against simulated data with known parameter values. CMSY provided, in addition, reasonable predictions of relative biomass and exploitation rate. Both models were evaluated against 128 real stocks, where estimates of biomass were available from full stock assessments. BSM estimates of r, k and MSY were used as benchmarks for the respective CMSY estimates and were not significantly different in 76% of the stocks. A similar test against 28 data‐limited stocks, where CPUE instead of biomass was available, showed that BSM and CMSY estimates of r, k and MSY were not significantly different in 89% of the stocks. Both CMSY and BSM combine the production model with a simple stock–recruitment model, accounting for reduced recruitment at severely depleted stock sizes.

This study presents a new method (LBB) for the analysis of length frequency data from commercial catches. LBB works for species that grow throughout their lives, such as most commercially-important fish and invertebrates, and requires no input in addition to length frequency data. It estimates asymptotic length, length at first capture, relative natural mortality, and relative fishing mortality. Standard fisheries equations can then be used to approximate current exploited biomass relative to unexploited biomass. In addition, these parameters allow the estimation of length at first capture that would maximize catch and biomass for a given fishing effort, and estimation of a proxy for the relative biomass capable of producing maximum sustainable yields. Relative biomass estimates of LBB were not significantly different from the “true” values in simulated data and were similar to independent estimates from full stock assessments. LBB also presents a new indicator for assessing whether an observed size structure is indicative of a healthy stock. LBB results will obviously be misleading if the length frequency data do not represent the size composition of the exploited size range of the stock or if length frequencies resulting from the interplay of growth and mortality are masked by strong recruitment pulses.

the reformed Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) of the European Union is legally binding for all Member States. It prescribes the end of overfishing and the rebuilding of all stocks above levels that can produce maximum sustainable yields (MSY). This study examines the current status, exploitation pattern, required time for rebuilding, future catch, and future profitability for 397 European stocks. Fishing pressure and biomass were estimated from 2000 to the last year with available data in 10 European ecoregions and 2 wide ranging regions. In the last year with available data, 69% of the 397 stocks were subject to ongoing overfishing and 51% of the stocks were outside of safe biological limits. Only 12% of the stocks fulfilled the prescriptions of the CFP. Fishing pressure has decreased since 2000 in some ecoregions but not in others. Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea have the highest percentage (> 60%) of sustainably exploited stocks that are capable of producing MSY. In contrast, in the Mediterranean Sea, fewer than 20% of the stocks are exploited sustainably. Overfishing is still widespread in European waters and current management, which aims at maximum sustainable exploitation, is unable to rebuild the depleted stocks and results in poor profitability. This study examines four future exploitation scenarios that are compatible with the CFP. It finds that exploitation levels of 50-80% of the maximum will rebuild stocks and lead to higher catches than currently obtained, with substantially higher profits for the fishers.