There is a lack of methodological results to design efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for statistical models with discrete-valued high-dimensional parameters. Motivated by this consideration, we propose a simple framework for the design of informed MCMC proposals (i.e. Metropolis-Hastings proposal distributions that appropriately incorporate local information about the target) which is naturally applicable to both discrete and continuous spaces. We explicitly characterize the class of optimal proposal distributions under this framework, which we refer to as locallybalanced proposals, and prove their Peskun-optimality in high-dimensional regimes. The resulting algorithms are straightforward to implement in discrete spaces and provide orders of magnitude improvements in efficiency compared to alternative MCMC schemes, including discrete versions of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Simulations are performed with both simulated and real datasets, including a detailed application to Bayesian record linkage. A direct connection with gradient-based MCMC suggests that locally-balanced proposals may be seen as a natural way to extend the latter to discrete spaces. arXiv:1711.07424v1 [stat.CO]
Summary
We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to high dimensionality, explicit comparison with standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and illustrations of the potential improvements in efficiency. Simple and concrete intuition is provided for when the novel scheme is expected to outperform standard schemes. When applied to Bayesian variable‐selection problems, the novel algorithm is orders of magnitude more efficient than available alternative sampling schemes and enables fast and reliable fully Bayesian inferences with tens of thousand regressors.
Summary
We develop methodology and complexity theory for Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used in inference for crossed random effects models in modern analysis of variance. We consider a plain Gibbs sampler and propose a simple modification, referred to as a collapsed Gibbs sampler. Under some balancedness conditions on the data designs and assuming that precision hyperparameters are known, we demonstrate that the plain Gibbs sampler is not scalable, in the sense that its complexity is worse than proportional to the number of parameters and data, but the collapsed Gibbs sampler is scalable. In simulated and real datasets we show that the explicit convergence rates predicted by our theory closely match the computable, but nonexplicit rates in cases where the design assumptions are violated. We also show empirically that the collapsed Gibbs sampler extended to sample precision hyperparameters significantly outperforms alternative state-of-the-art algorithms.
This paper shows how the theory of Dirichlet forms can be used to deliver proofs of optimal scaling results for Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (specifically, Metropolis-Hastings random walk samplers) under regularity conditions which are substantially weaker than those required by the original approach (based on the use of infinitesimal generators). The Dirichlet form methods have the added advantage of providing an explicit construction of the underlying infinite-dimensional context. In particular, this enables us directly to establish weak convergence to the relevant infinite-dimensional distributions.2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60F05; 60J22, 65C05.
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