No abstract
The ability to predict wind is crucial for both energy production and weather forecasting. Mechanistic models that form the basis of traditional forecasting perform poorly near the ground. In this paper, we take an alternative datadriven approach based on supervised learning. We analyze a massive dataset of wind measured from anemometers located at 10 m height in 32 locations in two central and north west regions of Italy (Abruzzo and Liguria). We train supervised learning algorithms using the past history of wind to predict its value at a future time (horizon). Using data from a single location and time horizon we compare systematically several algorithms where we vary the input/output variables, the memory of the input and the linear vs non-linear learning model. We then compare performance of the best algorithms across all locations and forecasting horizons. We find that the optimal design as well as its performance vary with the location. We demonstrate that the presence of a reproducible diurnal cycle provides a rationale to understand this variation. We conclude with a systematic comparison with state of the art algorithms and show that, when the model is accurately designed, shallow algorithms are competitive with more complex deep architectures.
Kernel methods provide a principled approach to nonparametric learning. While their basic implementations scale poorly to large problems, recent advances showed that approximate solvers can efficiently handle massive datasets. A shortcoming of these solutions is that hyperparameter tuning is not taken care of, and left for the user to perform. Hyperparameters are crucial in practice and the lack of automated tuning greatly hinders efficiency and usability. In this paper, we work to fill in this gap focusing on kernel ridge regression based on the Nyström approximation. After reviewing and contrasting a number of hyperparameter tuning strategies, we propose a complexity regularization criterion based on a data dependent penalty, and discuss its efficient optimization. Then, we proceed to a careful and extensive empirical evaluation highlighting strengths and weaknesses of the different tuning strategies. Our analysis shows the benefit of the proposed approach, that we hence incorporate in a library for large scale kernel methods to derive adaptively tuned solutions.
The visual system of a robot has different requirements depending on the application: it may require high accuracy or reliability, be constrained by limited resources, or need fast adaptation to dynamically changing environments. In this article, we focus on the instance segmentation task and provide a comprehensive study of different techniques that allow adapting an object segmentation model in the presence of novel objects or different domains. We propose a pipeline for fast instance segmentation learning designed for robotic applications where data come in stream. It is based on an hybrid method leveraging on a pretrained convolutional neural network for feature extraction and fast-to-train Kernel-based classifiers. We also propose a training protocol that allows to shorten the training time by performing feature extraction during the data acquisition. We benchmark the proposed pipeline on two robotics datasets and we deploy it on a real robot, i.e., the iCub humanoid. To this aim, we adapt our method Manuscript
We study the behavior of error bounds for multiclass classification under suitable margin conditions. For a wide variety of methods we prove that the classification error under a hardmargin condition decreases exponentially fast without any bias-variance trade-off. Different convergence rates can be obtained in correspondence of different margin assumptions. With a self-contained and instructive analysis we are able to generalize known results from the binary to the multiclass setting.
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