Identifying managed flooding in paddy fields is commonly used in remote sensing to detect rice. Such flooding, followed by rapid vegetation growth, is a reliable indicator to discriminate rice. Spectral indices (SIs) are often used to perform this task. However, little work has been done on determining which spectral combination in the form of Normalised Difference Spectral Indices (NDSIs) is most appropriate for surface water detection or which thresholds are most robust to separate water from other surfaces in operational contexts. To address this, we conducted analyses on satellite and field spectral data from an agronomic experiment as well as on real farming situations with different soil and plant conditions. Firstly, we review and select NDSIs proposed in the literature, including a new combination of visible and shortwave infrared bands. Secondly, we analyse spectroradiometric field data and satellite data to evaluate mixed pixel effects. Thirdly, we analyse MODIS data and Landsat data at four sites in Europe and Asia to assess NDSI performance in real-world conditions. Finally, we test the performance of the NDSIs on MODIS temporal profiles in the four sites. We also compared the NDSIs against a combined index previously used for agronomic flood detection. Analyses suggest that NDSIs using MODIS bands 4 and 7, 1 and 7, 4 and 6 or 1 and 6 perform best. A common threshold for each NDSI across all sites was more appropriate than locally adaptive thresholds. In general, NDSIs that use band 7 have a negligible increase in Commission Error over those that use band 6 but are more sensitive to water presence in mixed land cover conditions typical of moderate spatial resolution analyses. The best performing NDSI is comparable to the combined index but with less variability in performance across sites, suggesting a more succinct and robust flood detection method.
Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5‐year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy‐based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018‐like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high‐end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro‐economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw.
Agricultural monitoring systems require spatio-temporal information on widely cultivated staple crops like rice. More emphasis has been made on area estimation and crop detection than on the temporal aspects of crop cultivation, but seasonal and temporal information such as i) crop duration, ii) date of crop establishment and iii) cropping intensity are as important as area for understanding crop production. Rice cropping systems are diverse because genetic, environmental and management factors (GxExM combinations) influence the spatio-temporal patterns of cultivation. We present a rule based algorithm called PhenoRice for automatic extraction of temporal information on the rice crop using moderate resolution hypertemporal optical imagery from MODIS. Performance of PhenoRice against spatially and temporally explicit reference information was tested in three diverse sites: rice-fallow (Italy), rice-other crop (India) and rice-rice (Philippines) systems. Regional product accuracy assessments showed that PhenoRice made a conservative, spatially representative and robust detection of rice cultivation in all sites (r 2 between 0.75 and 0.92) and crop establishment dates were in close agreement with the reference data (r 2 = 0.98, Mean Error = 4.07 days, Mean Absolute Error = 9.95 days, p < 0.01). Variability in algorithm performance in different conditions in each site (irrigated vs rainfed, direct seeding vs transplanting, fragmented vs clustered rice landscapes and the impact of cloud contamination) was analysed and discussed. Analysis of the maps revealed that cropping intensity and season length per site matched well with local information on agro-practices and cultivated varieties. The results show that PhenoRice is robust for deriving essential temporal descriptions of rice systems in both temperate and tropical regions at a level of spatial and temporal detail that is suitable for regional crop monitoring on a seasonal basis. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International" license.
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