The manner in which terrestrial ecosystems are regulated is controversial. The "top-down" school holds that predators limit herbivores and thereby prevent them from overexploiting vegetation. "Bottom-up" proponents stress the role of plant chemical defenses in limiting plant depredation by herbivores. A set of predator-free islands created by a hydroelectric impoundment in Venezuela allows a test of these competing world views. Limited area restricts the fauna of small (0.25 to 0.9 hectare) islands to predators of invertebrates (birds, lizards, anurans, and spiders), seed predators (rodents), and herbivores (howler monkeys, iguanas, and leaf-cutter ants). Predators of vertebrates are absent, and densities of rodents, howler monkeys, iguanas, and leaf-cutter ants are 10 to 100 times greater than on the nearby mainland, suggesting that predators normally limit their populations. The densities of seedlings and saplings of canopy trees are severely reduced on herbivore-affected islands, providing evidence of a trophic cascade unleashed in the absence of top-down regulation.

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Insects exhibit a variety of population-level responses to forest fragmentation, ranging from population increase to extinction. However, the biological attributes that underlie differences in extinction vulnerability among insects have been little-studied. Using the frugivorous butterfly community of tropical dry forest in Venezuela, we studied body size, population density and colonization ability as attributes that might underlie the range of responses of insects to forest fragmentation. The study was carried out in a set of forest fragments in the reservoir Lago Guri, formed by the damming of the Caroni River in eastern Venezuela. Results show that larger butterfly species were more vulnerable to extinction from habitat fragments than smaller ones. Rarer species were not more vulnerable to extinction, showing that rarity may not be an important correlate of vulnerability to extinction amongst insects. Contrary to expectation, faster-flying species were more and not less vulnerable to extinction from small habitat fragments. We speculate on the possible reasons for the observed patterns in extinction vulnerability using additional observations on behavioural patterns and larval host plant distributions of some of the butterfly species.

Frugivorous butterflies were studied in a set of forested islands (0.1 to 1.15 ha) in a reservoir in eastern Venezuela to investigate the effects of fragmentation and the resulting isolation on their abundance, diversity and species composition. While some islands showed reduced abundance and species diversity in comparison to unfragmented (or control) sites, others did not. Isolation status affected both butterfly abundance and diversity. Islands located close to their colonizing sources (0.1–1 km) tended to support similar densities of butterflies but lower numbers of species in comparison to control sites. Far fragments (1–3 km from their colonizing sources) tended to harbour lower butterfly densities in comparison to control sites but undiminished numbers of species. Species composition varied significantly between control sites and islands and amongst control sites, near islands and far islands. Interspecific differences were observed in species' responses to fragmentation. Charaxines, medium-sized satyrines, morphines and brassolines may be vulnerable to extinction after habitat fragmentation while small-sized satyrines may be relatively resistant. Observations during the dry season indicate that butterfly species may exist as mainland-island metapopulations in Lago Guri, in which small habitat fragments require recolonization every year from source populations in large islands and mainland habitat.