This article investigates the potential of nonlinear causal relationships between world oil prices and stock markets in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries during a black swan period that is characterized by rarity and devastating impacts. Our study is carried out using the daily data for 11 MENA countries over the period from 2 July 2007 to 27 August 2012. By using the nonlinear and asymmetric causality test of Kyrtsou and Labys (2006), we mainly find that: (i) the oil prices and MENA stock markets interact in a nonlinear manner; (ii) the signs of changes in the causing variables are important for detecting the true causality links between the variables and (iii) the nonlinear causality is more pronounced in the case of the Brent than West Texas Intermediate oil prices.

This study complements existing literature by examining the nexus between energy consumption (EC), CO 2 emissions (CE) and economic growth (GDP) in 24 African countries using a panel ARDL approach. The following findings are established. First, there is a long run relationship between EC, CE and GDP. Second, a long term effect from CE to GDP and EC is apparent, with reciprocal paths. Third, the error correction mechanisms are consistently stable. However, in cases of disequilibrium only EC can be significantly adjusted to its long run relationship. Fourth, there is a long-run causality running from GDP and CE to EC. Fifth, we find causality running from either CE or both CE and EC to GDP and inverse causal paths are observable. Causality from EC to GDP is not strong, which supports the conservative hypothesis. Sixth, the causal direction from EC to GDP remains unobservable in the short term. By contrast, the opposite path is observable. There are also no short-run causalities from GDP, or EC, or EC and GDP to EC. Policy implications are discussed.JEL Classification: C52; O40; O55; Q43: Q50

Abstract. This paper investigates the effect of oil rents on agriculture value added in oil producing Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. Annual data from 1970 to 2011, panel cointegration tests by Pedroni (1999), long ran panel causality tests by Canning and Pedroni (2008), and two-step System GMM by Blundell and Bond (1998) are used in this study. We find a negative relationship between oil rents and agriculture value added in the long run, with a rather slow rate of short run adjustment of agriculture value added back to equilibrium after a boom in oil rents. These results indicate that an oil sector boom is associated with a contraction in the agriculture sectors of the countries in the panel in the long run. This is probably attributable to a resource movement effect from other economic sectors to the booming oil sector in these countries. This serves as evidence of a Dutch disease effect of an oil sector boom on agriculture in the MENA countries in this study.

Recent studies have shown increasing interest on the relationship between research output and economic growth. The study of such a relationship is not only of theoretical interest, but it can also influence specific policies to improve the quality, and probably the quantity of research output. This paper has studied this relationship in G7 countries using the asymmetric panel causality test of Hatemi-J (2011). Our results show that only the United Kingdom shows a causal relationship from the output of research to real GDP. However, when the signs of variations are taken into account, there is an asymmetric causality running from negative research output shocks to negative real GDP shocks. JEL Classification: C33, O3, O4