Galloway, Gerald E., 2011. If Stationarity Is Dead, What Do We Do Now? Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):563‐570. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00550.x
Abstract: In January 2010, hydrologists, climatologists, engineers, and scientists met in Boulder, Colorado, to discuss the report of the death of hydrologic stationarity and the implications this might have on water resources planning and operations in the United States and abroad. For decades planners have relied on design guidance from the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data Bulletin 17B that was based upon the concept of stationarity. After 2½ days of discussion it became clear that the assembled community had yet to reach an agreement on whether or not to replace the assumption of stationarity with an assumption of nonstationarity or something else. Hydrologists were skeptical that data gathered to this point in the 21st Century point to any significant change in river parameters. Climatologists, on the other hand, point to climate change and the predicted shift away from current conditions to a more turbulent flood and drought filled future. Both groups are challenged to provide immediate guidance to those individuals in and outside the water community who today must commit funds and efforts on projects that will require the best estimates of future conditions. The workshop surfaced many approaches to dealing with these challenges. While there is good reason to support additional study of the death of stationarity, its implications, and new approaches, there is also a great need to provide those in the field the information they require now to plan, design, and operate today’s projects.
In 1993, the United States experienced a flood that produced the highest economic damages of the century Large areas of the Midwest were underwater for weeks as the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Rivers left their banks. Over 130 people lost their lives and flood losses grew to over $20 billion (US). For a few years after, national attention was focused on floodplain management, but, as other issues faced the government, efforts to develop a new approach to dealing with flood losses faded. Hurricane Katrina, with the deaths of over 1300 persons and billions of dollars in damages, brought flooding back to the front page of the newspapers and has stirred a new interest in developing a more rational approach to occupance of the floodplain and to use of new approaches to flood damage reduction. As a result of several recent studies and government actions, attention is now being focused on the use of risk analysis methodologies to support decisions on floodplain use, slowly edging the United States closer to flood risk management and away from floodplain management. This paper discusses the lessons learned from the 1993 flood, the actions taken in the United States since 1993, and the impact Hurricane Katrina is having on bringing risk into the decisions that shape floodplain use in the United States.
Floods become disasters when people and property are placed in harm's way. Yet stakeholders, those at risk of flooding, often take no action to reduce their vulnerability. We demonstrated an approach for improving flood risk communication using the process of realistic interactive visualisation. Our goal was to communicate information about flood risk at the community level and increase stakeholders’ intent to take actions to reduce their risk. Realistic visualisation promotes action based on emotional connection to images. Interactive visualisation is the direct construction of the model by stakeholders. As a reference, we also tested a nationally‐recognised model designed for the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Both methods resulted in significant learning about community‐specific flood risk and risk reduction options. To maximise the intent by stakeholders to take actions to reduce risk, the realistic interactive visualisation method used in high‐quality meeting facilities performed best.
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