ObjectiveTo estimate the impact of using the Aptima messenger RNA (mRNA) high-risk human papilloma virus (HR-HPV) assay versus a DNA HR-HPV assay in a primary HPV cervical screening programme.DesignOne hypothetical cohort followed for 3 years through HPV primary cervical screening.SettingEngland.ParticipantsA hypothetical cohort of women aged 25–65 years tested in the National Health Service (NHS) Cervical Screening Programme (CSP) for first call or routine recall testing.MethodsA decision tree parameterised with data from the CSP (2017/18) and the HORIZON study. Uncertainty analyses were conducted using data from the FOCAL and GAST studies, other DNA HPV tests in addition to one-way and probabilistic sensitivity and scenarios analyses, to test the robustness of results.InterventionsAptima mRNA HR-HPV assay and a DNA HR-HPV assay (cobas 4800 HPV assay).Main outcome measuresPrimary: total colposcopies and total costs for the cohort. Secondary: total HPV and cytology tests, number lost to follow-up.ResultsAt baseline for a population of 2.25 million women, an estimated £15.4 million (95% credibility intervals (CI) £6.5 to 24.1 million) could be saved and 28 009 (95% CI 27 499 to 28 527) unnecessary colposcopies averted if Aptima mRNA assays are used instead of a DNA assay, with 90 605 fewer unnecessary HR-HPV and 253 477 cytology tests performed. These savings are due to a lower number of HPV positive samples in the mRNA arm. When data from other primary HPV screening trials were compared, results indicated that using the Aptima mRNA assay generated cost savings and reduced testing in every scenario.ConclusionUsing the Aptima mRNA assay versus a DNA assay would almost certainly yield cost savings and reduce unnecessary testing and procedures, benefiting the NHS and women in the CSP.

Background Widespread ceftriaxone antimicrobial resistance (AMR) threatens Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) treatment, with few alternatives available. AMR point-of-care tests (AMR POCT) may enable alternative treatments, including abandoned regimens, sparing ceftriaxone use. We assessed cost-effectiveness of five hypothetical AMR POCT strategies: A-C included a second antibiotic alongside ceftriaxone; and D and E consisted of a single antibiotic alternative, compared with standard care (SC: ceftriaxone and azithromycin). Aim Assess costs and effectiveness of AMR POCT strategies that optimise NG treatment and reduce ceftriaxone use. Methods The five AMR POCT treatment strategies were compared using a decision tree model simulating 38,870 NG-diagnosed England sexual health clinic (SHC) attendees; A micro-costing approach, representing cost to the SHC (for 2015/16), was employed. Primary outcomes were: total costs; percentage of patients given optimal treatment (regimens curing NG, without AMR); percentage of patients given non-ceftriaxone optimal treatment; cost-effectiveness (cost per optimal treatment gained). Results All strategies cost more than SC. Strategy B (azithromycin and ciprofloxacin (azithromycin preferred); dual therapy) avoided most suboptimal treatments (n = 48) but cost most to implement (GBP 4,093,844 (EUR 5,474,656)). Strategy D (azithromycin AMR POCT; monotherapy) was most cost-effective for both cost per optimal treatments gained (GBP 414.67 (EUR 554.53)) and per ceftriaxone-sparing treatment (GBP 11.29 (EUR 15.09)) but with treatment failures (n = 34) and suboptimal treatments (n = 706). Conclusions AMR POCT may enable improved antibiotic stewardship, but require net health system investment. A small reduction in test cost would enable monotherapy AMR POCT strategies to be cost-saving.

ObjectivesTo assess the cost-effectiveness of universal repeat screening for syphilis in late pregnancy, compared with the current strategy of single screening in early pregnancy with repeat screening offered only to high-risk women.DesignA decision tree model was developed to assess the incremental costs and health benefits of the two screening strategies. The base case analysis considered short-term costs during the pregnancy and the initial weeks after delivery. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the results.SettingUK antenatal screening programme.PopulationHypothetical cohort of pregnant women who access antenatal care and receive a syphilis screen in 1 year.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe primary outcome was the cost to avoid one case of congenital syphilis (CS). Secondary outcomes were the cost to avoid one case of intrauterine fetal demise (IUFD) or neonatal death and the number of women needing to be screened/treated to avoid one case of CS, IUFD or neonatal death. The cost per quality-adjusted life year gained was assessed in scenario analyses.ResultsBase case results indicated that for pregnant women in the UK (n=725 891), the repeat screening strategy would result in 5.5 fewer cases of CS (from 8.8 to 3.3), 0.1 fewer cases of neonatal death and 0.3 fewer cases of IUFD annually compared with the single screening strategy. This equates to an additional £1.8 million per case of CS prevented. When lifetime horizon was considered, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the repeat screening strategy was £120 494.ConclusionsUniversal repeat screening for syphilis in pregnancy is unlikely to be cost-effective in the current UK setting where syphilis prevalence is low. Repeat screening may be cost-effective in countries with a higher syphilis incidence in pregnancy, particularly if the cost per screen is low.

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A comprehensive and detailed understanding of COPD care pathways from pre-diagnosis to acute care is required to understand the common barriers to optimal COPD care across diverse health systems. Methods Country-specific COPD care pathways were created for four high-income countries using international recommendations and country-specific guidelines, then populated with published epidemiological, clinical, and economic data. To refine and validate the pathways, semi-structured interviews using pre-prepared discussion guides and country-specific pathway maps were held with twenty-four primary and secondary care respiratory healthcare professionals. Thematic analysis was then performed on the interview transcripts. Results The COPD care pathway showed broad consistency across the countries. Three key themes relating to barriers in optimal COPD management were identified across the countries: journey to diagnosis, treatment, and the impact of COVID-19. Common barriers included presentation to healthcare with advanced COPD, low COPD consideration, and sub-optimal acute and chronic disease management. COVID-19 has negatively impacted disease management across the pathway but presents opportunities to retain virtual consultations. Structural factors such as insurance and short duration of appointments also impacted the diagnosis and management of COPD. Conclusion COPD is an important public health issue that needs urgent prioritization. The use of Evidenced Care Pathways with decision-makers can facilitate evidence-based decision making on interventions and policies to improve care and outcomes for patients and reduce unnecessary resource use and associated costs for the healthcare provider/payer.

Highlights Using an mRNA HPV test in cervical screening can reduce costs and avoid procedures. This could benefit both the healthcare system and women by optimizing resource use. These results can inform choices in cervical screening programs in Canada.