The mining industry has dominated the economic development and the export goods market space in South Africa for more than a century. In the past century, many towns and cities were developed around the mining activities, creating dependence on mining for sustainability. The overall decline in mining production between the 1990s and the early 2000s has driven some of the once vibrant towns into ghost towns. In this paper, the operation of the Manganese value chain is reviewed based on systems thinking approach and dynamic simulation of the key industry drivers. The paper addresses the impact of a Manganese beneficiation policy on sustainable infrastructure development. First, the systems thinking concepts applicable to complex social problem solving are reviewed, followed by the analyses of the Manganese business dynamics over a 10 year period. A performance pattern based on revenue earned per ton is presented to highlight the investment potential for infrastructure and alternative business development
The contribution of mining activities to social infrastructure and human development is a complex socio-economic development issue in South Africa. Complexity theory has introduced a new approach to solving problems in social systems, recognising them as complex systems. The socio-economic development system in South Africa falls into this category of complex systems. Analysing such a system requires that a number of feedback loops and details about the issues be analysed simultaneously. This level of complexity is above a human's ability to comprehend without the aid of tools such as systems thinking and system dynamics. The causality between investment in infrastructure capacity and socio-economic development is dynamic. The relationship is influenced by exogenous feedback that, if not managed, is likely to reverse itself. This paper presents the results of a system dynamics modelling of the relationship, based on the principle of relative attractiveness developed in previous system dynamics research. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to determine the sensitivity of the system to changes in feedback. The paper concludes that the limits to growth in a socio-economic environment are determined by more factors than the availability of capital, and also include land capacity constraints and skills shortage. OPSOMMINGDie bydrae van mynbou-aktiwiteite tot sosiale infrastruktuur en menslike ontwikkeling is 'n komplekse sosio-ekonomiese ontwikkeling kwessie in Suid-Afrika. Die kompleksiteitsteorie het 'n nuwe benadering tot die oplossing van probleme in sosiale stelsels gebring deur hulle as komplekse stelsels te benader en die sosioekonomiese ontwikkeling in Suid-Afrika val binne hierdie kategorie van komplekse stelsels. Die ontleding van so 'n stelsel vereis dat 'n aantal terugvoerlusse en besonderhede rondom die kwessies gelyktydig ontleed word. Hierdie vlak van kompleksiteit is bo menslike vermoë om te verstaan sonder die hulp van gereedskap soos stelsel denke en -dinamika. Die verwantskap tussen belegging in kapasiteit infrastruktuur en sosio-ekonomiese ontwikkeling is dinamies. Die verwantskap word beïnvloed deur eksterne terugvoer, en indien dit nie bestuur word nie is die verwantskap geneig om ook in die omgekeerde rigting neerslag te vind. Die artikel bied die resultate van 'n dinamiese stelsels-modellering van die verwantskap wat gebaseer is op die beginsel van relatiewe aantreklikheid en wat ontwikkel is vanuit vorige stelseldinamika navorsing. 'n Monte Carlo analise word gebruik om die sensitiwiteit van die stelsel ten opsigte van verandering in terugvoer te bepaal. Een van die gevolgtrekkings in die navorsing is dat die grense van groei in 'n sosio-ekonomiese omgewing bepaal word deur meer faktore as die beskikbaarheid van kapitaal, wat die land kapasiteitsbeperkings en vaardigheidstekorte ook insluit.
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