Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of~0.5 Pg·y −1 , reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers of demand. We tested this theory to see if forest exploitation would expand through time and space as concentric waves, with each wave targeting lower value products. We used forest data along a transect from 10 to 220 km from Dar es Salaam (DES), Tanzania, collected at two points in time (1991 and 2005). Our predictions were confirmed: high-value logging expanded 9 km·y −1 , and an inner wave of lower value charcoal production 2 km·y ; 0.1 species per sample area (0.4 ha)]. Our study suggests that tropical forest degradation can be modeled and predicted, with its attendant loss of some public goods. In sub-Saharan Africa, an area experiencing the highest rate of urban migration worldwide, coupled with a high dependence on forestbased resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity. biodiversity conservation | carbon emissions | reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation | sustainability | tropical forest degradation

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Eastern African coastal forests are located within the Swahili regional centre of endemism and Swahili‐Maputaland regional transition zone in eastern Africa, between 1d̀ North and 25d̀ South, and 34—41d̀ East. Approximately 3167 km2 coastal forest remains: 2 km2 in Somalia, 660 km2 in Kenya, 697 km2 in Tanzania, 16 km2 in Malawi, 3 km2 in Zimbabwe and perhaps 1790 km2 in Mozambique. Most forests are small (≤ 20 km2), and all but 19 are under 30 km2 in area. Over 80% of coastal forest is located on government land, principally Forest Reserves; only 8.3 km2 is found in National Parks (6.2 km2 in Kenya (Arabuko‐Sokoke), 2 km2 in Tanzania (Mafia Island) and tiny patches in Zimbabwe). Coastal forests are an important and highly threatened centre of endemism for plants (c 550 endemic species), mammals (6 species), birds (9 species), reptiles (26 species), frogs (2 species), butterflies (79 species), snails (>86 species) and millipedes (>20 species). Endemic species are concentrated in the forests of the Tana River, between Malindi in Kenya to Tanga in northern Tanzania, and in southern Tanzania. Forests with highest numbers of endemics are: lower Tana River, Arabuko‐Sokoke, Shimba Hills (Kenya); lowland East Usambara, Pugu Hills, Matumbi Hills, Rondo and Litipo and other plateaux near Lindi (Tanzania); the Tanzanian offshore island of Pemba; Bazaruto archipelago (Mozambique), and tiny forest remnants of southern Malawi, eastern Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Most coastal forest endemics have a narrow distributional range, often exhibiting single‐site endemism or with scattered or disjunct distributional patterns. They are best interpreted as relicts and not the result of recent evolution. Relictualization probably started with the separation of the ancient Pan African rainforest into two parts during the Miocene. The coastal forests are interpreted as a ‘vanishing refuge’ with the endemic species gradually becoming more and more relict (and presumably extinct) due historically to climatic desiccation and more recently to human destruction.

Background and aims -The Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa, stretching along the Indian Ocean coastline from Somalia to Mozambique, are considered by Conservation International to be a global biodiversity hotspot -an area of high diversity and endemism under increasing threat. Although the largest remaining extent of these forests is reported to be found in Mozambique, very little is known on their extent, condition and composition here. In addition, the term 'coastal forest' has been used in different ways by different authors. This paper defines and characterises coastal dry forests found in northern Mozambique and assesses their present extent, botanical composition, conservation importance and the threats to these forests. Methods -The study area of 18,150 km 2 lies in Cabo Delgado Province in north-east Mozambique, adjacent to Tanzania. Its limits are determined primarily by geological substrate and landform. Four smaller study sites were chosen covering a range of landforms. Manual interpretation of satellite imagery dating from 1999-2002 was used to calculate possible previous and present extent of 'dense vegetation'. Extensive field collecting was used in determining botanical composition and distribution patterns. IUCN Red List assessments were carried out on selected species using distributional criteria. Results -Dry forests similar to those in southern Tanzania are found widely scattered across coastal Cabo Delgado, sitting in a matrix of miombo woodland and other vegetation types. However, forest cover is not as extensive was believed. We calculate that the original extent of 'dense vegetation cover', which includes coastal dry forest, was 6087 km 2 . Owing to clearance over the last 150 years this is now only 1182 km 2 , of which perhaps only 400 km 2 is moderately-intact dry forest. In this southern part of their range such forests are essentially dry, not moist and mesic, and dominated by a high proportion of deciduous or sclerophyllous evergreen trees. The plant species composition differs significantly from that of the surrounding woodlands. There is a marked change in species composition between forest patches along the coast, and they contain numerous species with restricted global distribution. Since 2003, 68 species new to Mozambique have been recorded from Cabo Delgado in addition to 36 possible new species. Many new records are of species previously only known from south-eastern Tanzania. Previously recorded patterns of restricted distribution and high species turnover between forest patches in Kenya and Tanzania are confirmed. Seven coastal forest species were assessed as Endangered. Regional context and conservation -Coastal dry forests are discussed in relation to the more widespread 'sand forests' of the continental interior of south-central Africa, and shown to have similarities in ecology, species composition, soils and ecology. Very little of the present extent of coastal forests in Mozambique lies within protected areas. The threats to their continued existence in the face of explo...