In virtually all jurisdictions that explicitly price carbon, its average (emissions-weighted) price remains low. Our analysis focuses on the political economy of its introduction as well as its stringency in an international panel of national and North American subnational jurisdictions. Results suggest that political economy factors primarily affected the former and that policy stringency is a highly persistent process. This has two important policy implications. First, successful passage of carbon pricing legislation will either come with contemporaneous compensation of incumbent, CO2-intensive, sectors or occur after their relative weakening. Second, if political economy constraints continue to prevail, climate change mitigation strategies will require multiple instruments.

We study the impact of carbon pricing on CO2 emissions across five sectors for a panel of 39 countries over 1990-2016. Using newly constructed sector-level carbon price data, we implement a novel approach to estimate the changes in CO2 emissions associated with (i) the introduction of carbon pricing regardless of the price level; (ii) the implementation effect as a function of the price level; and (iii) post-implementation marginal changes in the CO2 price. We find that the introduction of carbon pricing has reduced growth in CO2 emissions by 1% to 2.5% on average relative to counterfactual emissions, with most abatement occurring in the electricity and heat sector. Exploiting variation in carbon pricing to explain heterogeneity in treatment effects, we find an imprecisely estimated semi-elasticity of a 0.05% reduction in emissions growth per average $1/metric ton (hereafter abbreviated as: ton) of CO2. After the carbon price has been implemented, each marginal price increase of $1/tCO2 has temporarily lowered the growth rate of CO2 emissions by around 0.01%. These are disappointingly small effects. Simulating potential future emissions reductions in response to carbon price paths, we conclude that – in the absence of complementary non-pricing policy interventions – carbon pricing alone, even if implemented globally, is unlikely to be sufficient to achieve emission reductions consistent with the Paris climate agreement.

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Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos (all FAD), and Geoffroy Dolphin (EUR) Authorized for distribution by Bernardin Akitoby February 2023 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 16, 2022. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 23/034.