Developing countries have entered into investment treaties for decades. One promise of signing up to these potent agreements was that it would allow risky investment climates to attract more capital. This proclaimed benefit of the investment treaty regime is subject to a large, and growing, empirical literaturewith mixed findings. Yet, another, and potentially far more important promise of the treaties has been entirely ignored in empirical literature. Architects of the investment treaty regime as well as many current proponents have suggested that the treaties would allow developing countries to de-politicize investor-state disputes; i.e. shield commercial disputes from broader political and diplomatic considerations with developed states. While this argument is widely accepted by legal scholars and practitioners and explicitly promoted by capital-exporting states, it has never been subjected to empirical investigation. We provide the first such test, using an original dataset of US diplomatic actions in 219 individual investment disputes across 73 countries as well as detailed case studies drawing on internal US State Department diplomatic cables. We find no evidence for the de-politicization hypothesis: diplomatic engagement remains important for investor-state dispute settlement, and American diplomats are just as likely to intervene in developing countries that have ratified investment treaties with the US as those that have not. And though aggressive, coercive American intervention in investment disputes is rare, this is a general feature of American investment diplomacy after the Cold War, rather than one limited to investors with recourse to legalized dispute settlement procedures. These findings provide a critical corrective to our understanding of the investment treaty regime, and have important implications for understanding the effects of international legalization on developing countries.
The Defense Department and NASA are investigating the possibility that aliens are currently surveilling Earth. This aligns with some search-for-extraterrestrial-intelligence (SETI) theorists who have concluded that ET's best strategy for opening a channel of communication is to send artificially intelligent probes to our Solar System for that purpose. This is a golden age for traditional SETI, which is currently well funded, with most of the world's radio telescopes now engaged in the hunt. One way or another, contact with aliens may be imminent. There has been no planning among nations for the aftermath of a first detection. This paper advocates for such planning and diplomacy.
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, several states introduced and expanded regulatory frameworks for screening (and potentially blocking) inward foreign direct investment. This shift accelerated a preexisting trend in the global political economy, as states have been widening their understanding of “national security” risks arising from foreign investment. The result is that such screening mechanisms are evolving from a niche subject to a broader regulatory tool that touches an expanding share of global economic activity. The tensions inherent in this shift—including how firms will respond, how states can evaluate systemic (rather than transactional) risk, and the potential and limits of international cooperation in investment screening—have not yet been resolved.
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