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Please scroll down for article-it is on subsequent pages With 12,500 members from nearly 90 countries, INFORMS is the largest international association of operations research (O.R.) and analytics professionals and students. INFORMS provides unique networking and learning opportunities for individual professionals, and organizations of all types and sizes, to better understand and use O.R. and analytics tools and methods to transform strategic visions and achieve better outcomes. For more information on INFORMS, its publications, membership, or meetings visit http://www.informs.org

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Airport ground access mode choice models provide an essential analytical capability to support airport ground transportation planning studies as well as studies addressing the allocation of air travel demand among multiple airports in a region. A growing number of such models have been described in the literature: the models vary widely in functional form, explanatory variables, and estimated parameter values. However, almost no attention has been given to how reliably these models predict air passenger mode choice for time periods different from those for which they have been estimated or when available ground access services change. Both considerations are critical to the application of such models for forecasting. In attempting to rectify this situation, the predictive reliability of typical airport ground access models is addressed from two perspectives: ( a) the variability of airport ground access mode use over time and implications of this variation for the application of ground access mode choice models and ( b) how well models estimated on data collected at one time predict air traveler ground access mode use at other times or in different situations. The requirements for an empirical analysis that would apply an existing model to predict mode use in a later year or for a different airport are discussed, and the predicted mode use is compared with the actual mode use observed in air passenger surveys to assess the predictive reliability of the model.

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The airport ground transportation system is receiving increasing attention from airport authorities and regional transportation planning agencies. The need to plan for facilities at the airport and concern about the impact of traffic on streets and highways surrounding the airport, and about emissions generated by this traffic are forcing airports to consider strategies to reduce or mitigate ground access traffic. The 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act has caused transportation agencies at all levels to address the integration of different transportation modes, including coordination between the air and surface components of the transportation system. The range of ground access planning issues is reviewed, and three alternative strategies to improve intermodal connections at airports are discussed: new or upgraded rail links, off-airport terminals, and ground transportation centers at the airport. The planning and design issues that arise with each type of facility are addressed, as well as the analytical tools and data needed to evaluate the wide range of airport ground access projects and to plan the implementation of those selected. These include air passenger and truck surveys, development of operational data on the ground access system, and use of access mode choice and traffic flow models. Research needs in the area of airport ground access are also discussed.