A weeklong workshop in Brazil in August 2004 provided the opportunity for 28 scientists from southern South America to examine daily rainfall observations to determine changes in both total and extreme rainfall. Twelve annual indices of daily rainfall were calculated over the period 1960 to 2000, examining changes to both the entire distribution as well as the extremes. Maps of trends in the 12 rainfall indices showed large regions of coherent change, with many stations showing statistically significant changes in some of the indices. The pattern of trends for the extremes was generally the same as that for total annual rainfall, with a change to wetter conditions in Ecuador and northern Peru and the region of southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and northern and central Argentina. A decrease was observed in southern Peru and southern Chile, with the latter showing significant decreases in many indices. A canonical correlation analysis between each of the indices and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) revealed two large-scale patterns that have contributed to the observed trends in the rainfall indices. A coupled pattern with ENSO-like SST loadings and rainfall loadings showing similarities with the pattern of the observed trend reveals that the change to a generally more negative Southern Oscillation index (SOI) has had an important effect on regional rainfall trends. A significant decrease in many of the rainfall indices at several stations in southern Chile and Argentina can be explained by a canonical pattern reflecting a weakening of the continental trough leading to a southward shift in storm tracks. This latter signal is a change that has been seen at similar latitudes in other parts of the Southern Hemisphere. A similar analysis was carried out for eastern Brazil using gridded indices calculated from 354 stations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) database. The observed trend toward wetter conditions in the southwest and drier conditions in the northeast could again be explained by changes in ENSO.

Para citar este documentoRabelo da Rocha Repinaldo, C.., Müller, G. V., Martins Andrade, K.. (2017). Patrones atmosfericos simulados en el clima presente y futuro asociados al descenso de temperatura en el sudeste de Sudamerica. Boletín geográfico, 39, 13-34. ResumenLas características atmosféricas asociadas a eventos extremos fríos, identificados a partir del descenso de la temperatura en el invierno en tres regiones en el sudeste de Sudamérica, son analizadas con datos de reanálisis NCEP/NCAR y simulaciones de los modelos HadCM3 y GFDL-CM2.0 en la versión acoplada océano-atmósfera, para el clima presente y el escenario futuro más crítico A2 del CMIP3. Para las simulaciones del clima presente, el modelo que mejor representó las características observadas en el conjunto del reanálisis fue el GFDL-CM2.0, presentándose más coherente con relación a las posiciones de las altas pos frontales y de las isotermas de 0°C y 10°C. Para el futuro, el modelo GFDL-CM2.0 proyecta un debilitamiento de las anomalías negativas de temperatura y los eventos extremos de caída de temperatura con menos avance en dirección al Ecuador, mientras que, según el modelo HadCM3, la simulación para el futuro

The greatest discharges of the Paraguay River were studied using monthly series of Ladario, Brazil, at the outlet of the vast wetland of the Pantanal, and Asunción, Paraguay, at the middle Paraguay River outlet. Most of the major discharges at Asunción peaked between May and July, in phase with the annual maximum of the river discharges. They originated in the upper and middle Paraguay basins and were independent of the Pantanal output because their climate forcings were different from those of the Pantanal. In fact, most of the major discharge contributions from the upper and middle Paraguay basins occurred during El Niño (EN) periods, while at the Pantanal outlet they happened in neutral periods. The top discharge occurred during the autumn following the EN onset year. The composite of these cases has a tropospheric circulation that enhances the subtropical jet and the cyclonic vorticity advection over the Alto Paraná and the upper and middle Paraguay basins, favoring large positive anomalies in the precipitation field. Not all the major discharges were related to EN. Particularly, the major discharges that peaked in winter shared common features, despite their occurrence during EN, La Niña, or the neutral phases. Their April to August fields had an almost barotropic pattern at high latitudes with a deep cyclonic anomaly between 120Њ and 160ЊW and an anticyclonic anomaly over the southern tip of South America. This pattern is consistent with a northward shift of the synoptic perturbation tracks, which favors fields of positive precipitation anomalies over the Paraguay basin.

Solar global radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were measured in Coronel Oviedo, Paraguay, within the path of totality of the eclipse of 3 November 1994. Global radiation decreased gradually as the sun was being eclipsed and became negligible during the totality, then increased to their normal values. Surface air temperature decreased significantly, about 3 'C, with the lowest value occurring about 7 minutes after totality. Relative humidity, because of its dependence on temperature, increased as a consequence of the temperature decrease. Surface wind speed decreased gradually during the eclipse, as a result of the cooling and stabilization of the atmosphere. Although atmospheric pressure was also measured, it was not possible to record pressure changes clearly associated to the eclipse, since the pressure sensor was only able to detect pressure variations of at least 1 hPa.

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