This paper studies international sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market focusing attention to the CDS of Central and East Europe. The main purpose of the study was to perform detail analysis of Lithuanian CDS in the global capital market. We compared the CDS markets of other countries and found some commonalities between them. We study the credit curve produced by CDS and volatility of CDS. A great attention is paid to investigate the relationship of CDS and the government bond market. Analysis of finding a leading role of CDS and the bond markets in the price discovering process is made. A leading market for different periods is found by using the Vector Error Correction model. Our main finding is that during the volatile period price discovery takes place in the bond market and in the calm period price discovery is observed in the CDS market. Disclosed relationship between CDS spreads and Eurobonds yield risk premium gives an additional decision making tool for sovereign debt managers.
Abstract. The paper deals with banks' interest rates on loans for non-financial corporations and households in Lithuania. It focuses on the influence of the sovereign credit risk on interest rates for loans. The paper presents an analysis of long-run and short-run relationship between interest rates on loans and the financial market indicators EURIBOR and CDS spread. The application of the cointegration technique has revealed that a change in the CDS spread by 100 basis points has an impact on changes in interest rates on loans by 42 basis points in the long run. No evident relationship between CDS spread and interest rates on loans in a short run has been detected. This shows that market conditions do not play a pivotal role for the banks in setting the interest rates on loans in a short run. Some communalities in interest rates on loans in the
The paper analyses development of the Baltic sovereign CDS market. The level of commonalities and differences in credit risk of the Baltic countries with regard to CDS spreads is investigated. We apply principal component analysis, regression analysis, correlation analysis methods and Granger causality test. Driving forces for changes of CDS spreads in the individual country are established. We discover that the main impact of CDS spread changes arrives from external sources. Our study reveals interdependence between CDS spreads of the Baltic countries and analyses a contagion effect of the change of CDS spreads.
In the paper the problem of adjustment for nonresponse in a WEB survey is addressed. The study is based on Vilnius University student survey on quality assessment of information technology services. A conditional logistic regression model is applied along with traditional nonresponse adjustment methods.
In the paper the problem of assessment of mathematical abilities is addressed. It is assumed that student’s grade in the mathematical analysis is one of the main indices of mathematical abilities which gives rather reliable guess of his further academic performance in mathematics. Relationships of the mathematical analysis grades with other factors including the examinator’s effect are investigated using data of Vilnius University students in mathematics and rank logistic regression with a variable scale.
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