Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. MethodsWe applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. FindingsIn 2019, there were 12•2 million (95% UI 11•0-13•6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93•2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6•55 million (6•00-7•02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11•6% [10•8-12•2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5•7% [5•1-6•2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70•0% (67•0-73•0), prevalent strokes increased by 85•0% (83•0-88•0), deaths from stroke increased by 43•0% (31•0-55•0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32•0% (22•0-42•0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17•0% (15•0-18•0), mortality decreased by 36•0% (31•0-42•0), prevalence decreased by 6•0% (5•0-7•0), and DALYs decreased by 36•0% (31•0-42•0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22•0% (21•0-24•0) and incidence rates increased by 15•0% (12•0-18•0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3•6 (3•5-3•8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3•7 (3•5-3•9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62•4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7•63 million [6•57-8•96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27•9% (3•41 million [2•97-3•91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9•7% (1•18 million [1•01-1•39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79•6 million [67•7-90•8] DALYs or 55•5% [48•2-62•0] of total stroke DALYs), high bodymass index (34•9 million [22•3-48•6] DALYs or 24•3% [15•7-33•2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28•9 million [19•8-41•5] DALYs or 20•2% [13•8-29•1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28•7 million [23•4-33•4] DALYs or 20•1% [16•6-23•0]), and smoking (25•3 million [22•6-28•2] DALYs or 17•6% [16•4-19•0]...

BackgroundDrowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study’s objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017.MethodsUnintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning.ResultsGlobally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes.ConclusionsThere has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries.

Summary Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05–10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27–6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53–4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06–2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71–0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27–1·58) deaths per 1...

BackgroundCervical cancer is the second most prevalent cancer among women in the developing countries including Ethiopia. Precancerous lesions can be developed and risk to the development of cervical cancer over time. Early identification of the precancerous lesion and its risk factor is paramount in preventing cervical cancer. However, the determinants of cervical precancerous lesions are not well documented in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study is conducted to determine factors associated with cervical precancerous lesion among women screened for cervical cancer.MethodsA hospital-based unmatched case-control study was conducted in selected health facilities in Addis Ababa from March to April 2016. Data were collected from 114 cases and 229 controls using an interviewer-administered questionnaire, entered to Epi Info version 7, and exported to SPSS version 20 for analysis. Odds ratios with its 95% confidence intervals and two-tailed P-value were calculated. Variables with P-value ≤ 0.2 in the bivariate analysis were included in the multivariate logistic regression model.ResultsWomen aged 40–49 years had 2.4-fold higher odds of precancerous lesions compared to those aged 30–39 (Adjusted Odds Ratio = 2.4, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.27–4.54). Women having history of sexually transmitted infections were significantly associated with cervical precancerous lesion compared to their counterparts (Adjusted Odds Ratio = 3.20, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.26–8.10). Similarly, those women who had two or more lifetime sexual partners (Adjusted Odds Ratio = 2.17 95% Confidence Interval: 1.01–4.67), and women whose husbands had two or more lifetime sexual partners (Adjusted Odds Ratio = 3.03, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.25, 7.33) had higher odds of cervical precancerous lesions.ConclusionsOlder age, history of multiple sexual partners and sexual transmitted infections were associated with increased risk of precancerous lesion. Therefore, women with higher risk of precancerous lesions should be encouraged to be screened more frequently for cervical cancer.

BackgroundThe incidence of premature rupture of membranes ranges from about 5% to 10% of all deliveries. A woman with premature rupture of membranes is at risk of intra-amniotic infection, postpartum infection, endometritis, and death. A neonate born from premature rupture of membranes mother is at high risk of respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, intraventricular hemorrhage and death. Little is known regarding the risk factors in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify risk factors of premature rupture of membranes among pregnant women admitted to public hospitals in Mekelle city, Tigray, Ethiopia.MethodsHospital based unmatched case control study design was implemented on 240 samples (160 controls and 80 cases) from pregnant mothers admitted to public hospitals in Mekelle city from February – April/2016. Data was collected by interviewer administered Structured questionnaire and checklist. Binary logistic regression model was used to see the association between dependent and independent variables and multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the independent predictors of premature rupture of membranes.ResultsA total of 160 controls and 80 cases were enrolled in the study. Multivariable logistic regression showed that history of abortion [AOR 3.06 (CI: 1.39, 6.71)], history of PROM [AOR 4.45 (CI: 1.87, 10.6)], history of caesarean section [AOR 3.15(CI: 1.05, 9.46)] and abnormal vaginal discharge in the index pregnancy [AOR 3.31(CI: 1.67, 6.56)] were positively associated with premature rupture of membranes.ConclusionsPast obstetric history and risks in the index pregnancy have an association with premature rupture of membranes. The finding of the study suggests early identification and treatment of genitourinary infection.

Background Bone fractures are a global public health issue; however, to date, no comprehensive study of their incidence and burden has been done. We aimed to measure the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of fractures from 1990 to 2019.Methods Using the framework of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we compared numbers and age-standardised rates of global incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of fractures across the 21 GBD regions and 204 countries and territories, by age, sex, and year, from 1990 to 2019. We report estimates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FindingsGlobally, in 2019, there were 178 million (95% UI 162-196) new fractures (an increase of 33•4% [30•1-37•0] since 1990), 455 million (428-484) prevalent cases of acute or long-term symptoms of a fracture (an increase of 70•1% [67•5-72•5] since 1990), and 25•8 million (17•8-35•8) YLDs (an increase of 65•3% [62•4-68•0] since 1990). The agestandardised rates of fractures in 2019 were 2296•2 incident cases (2091•1-2529•5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 9•6% [8•1-11•1] since 1990), 5614•3 prevalent cases (5286•1-5977•5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 6•7% [5•7-7•6] since 1990), and 319•0 YLDs (220•1-442•5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 8•4% [7•2-9•5] since 1990). Lower leg fractures of the patella, tibia or fibula, or ankle were the most common and burdensome fracture in 2019, with an age-standardised incidence rate of 419•9 cases (345•8-512•0) per 100 000 population and an age-standardised rate of YLDs of 190•4 (125•0-276•9) per 100 000 population. In 2019, age-specific rates of fracture incidence were highest in the oldest age groups, with, for instance, 15 381•5 incident cases (11 245•3-20 651•9) per 100 000 population in those aged 95 years and older.Interpretation The global age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for fractures decreased slightly from 1990 to 2019, but the absolute counts increased substantially. Older people have a particularly high risk of fractures, and more widespread injury-prevention efforts and access to screening and treatment of osteoporosis for older individuals should help to reduce the overall burden.Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Perinatal asphyxia is one of the most important causes of morbidity and mortality in neonates. Perinatal asphyxia occurs in association with maternal, fetal, and maternofetal factors. However, the magnitude and associated factors of perinatal asphyxia are not well studied in Tigray, Ethiopia. Therefore, our study is conducted to determine the prevalence and factors associated with perinatal asphyxia among neonates in general hospitals of Tigray. An observational hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted in randomly selected general hospitals. A semistructured questionnaire was used to collect data from 421 randomly selected neonates with their mothers and medical records. The data was entered into epidata version 3.5 and exported to Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20 for analysis. Finally, the presence of an association between a dependent variable and an independent variables has been declared at P-value ≤0.05, or adjusted odds ratio (AOR), 95% confidence interval (CI). Accordingly, the result of this study showed that the prevalence of perinatal asphyxia among the selected general hospitals was 22.1%. Neonates born with cesarean section are seven times more likely to have perinatal asphyxia than those who are born spontaneously through the vagina (AOR, 6.97; CI (2.87-16.93)). In addition, neonates who are born meconium stained are 8.55 times more likely to have perinatal asphyxia than those who had not stained with meconium (AOR, 8.55; CI (4.20-17.39)). Neonates who are weighed less than 2.5 kg are 12.75 times more likely to have perinatal asphyxia than those who are weighed 2.5-4 kg (AOR, 12.75; CI (4.05-40.08)). Prolonged duration of labour was also associated statistically with perinatal asphyxia (AOR, 3.33, CI (1.32-8.38)). In conclusion, the magnitude of perinatal asphyxia in general hospitals of Tigray remains high. Low birth weight, meconium-stained amniotic fluid, cesarean section, and prolonged maternal labour have been associated with perinatal asphyxia.

BackgroundAs global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations.ResultsThe global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, the age-standardised incidence of hand and wrist fractures was 179 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 146 to 217), whereas the less common injuries of thumb and non-thumb digit amputation were 24 (95% UI 17 to 34) and 56 (95% UI 43 to 74) per 100 000, respectively. Rates of injury vary greatly by region, and improvements have not been equally distributed. The highest burden of hand trauma is currently reported in high SDI countries. However, low-middle and middle SDI countries have increasing rates of hand trauma by as much at 25%.ConclusionsCertain regions are noted to have high rates of hand trauma over the study period. Low-middle and middle SDI countries, however, have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.