PURPOSE Adherence to tamoxifen citrate among women diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer can improve survival and minimize recurrence. This study aimed to use real-world data and machine learning (ML) methods to classify tamoxifen nonadherence. METHODS A cohort of women diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer from 2012 to 2017 were identified from IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters and Medicare claims databases. Patients with < 80% proportion of days coverage in the year following treatment initiation were classified as nonadherent. Training and internal validation cohorts were randomly generated (4:1 ratio). Clinical procedures, comorbidity, treatment, and health care encounter features in the year before tamoxifen initiation were used to train logistic regression, boosted logistic regression, random forest, and feedforward neural network models and were internally validated on the basis of area under receiver operating characteristic curve. The most predictive ML approach was evaluated to assess feature importance. RESULTS A total of 3,022 patients were included with 40% classified as nonadherent. All models had moderate predictive accuracy. Logistic regression (area under receiver operating characteristic 0.64) was interpreted with 94% sensitivity (95% CI, 89 to 92) and 0.31 specificity (95% CI, 29 to 33). The model accurately classified adherence (negative predictive value 89%) but was nondiscriminate for nonadherence (positive predictive value 48%). Variable importance identified top predictive factors, including age ≥ 55 years and pretreatment procedures (lymphatic nuclear medicine, radiation oncology, and arterial surgery). CONCLUSION ML using baseline administrative data predicts tamoxifen nonadherence. Screening at treatment initiation may support personalized care, improve health outcomes, and minimize cost. Baseline claims may not be sufficient to discriminate adherence. Further validation with enriched longitudinal data may improve model performance.
276 Background: Adherence to tamoxifen among women diagnosed with hormone receptor positive metastatic breast cancer (mBC) can improve survival and minimize recurrence. Screening for non-adherence at treatment initiation may support personalized care, improve health outcomes, and minimize cost of care. This study aimed to use real world data (RWD) and machine learning (ML) methods to classify tamoxifen non-adherence. Methods: A cohort of women diagnosed with incident mBC from 2012 to 2018 were identified from Truven MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters and Medicare supplemental administrative claims databases. Patients with < 80% proportion of days coverage (PDC) in the year following treatment initiation were classified non-adherent. Training and internal validation cohorts were randomly generated (4:1 ratio). Clinical procedures, comorbidity, treatment and healthcare encounter features in the year prior to treatment initiation were used to train logistic regression, boosted logistic regression, random forest, and feed forward neural network models and internally validated based on area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. The most predictive ML approach was evaluated to assess feature importance. Results: A total of 3,022 patients were included with 39.9% classified as non-adherent. All ML models had moderate predictive accuracy. Logistic regression (AUROC 0.64) was easily interpreted with sensitivity 94% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89, 0.92) and specificity 0.31 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.33). The model accurately classified adherence (negative predictive value 88.7%) but was non-discriminate for non-adherence (positive predictive value 47.7%). Variable importance identified top predictive factors, including patient features (≥55 years old) and pre-treatment procedures (lymphatic nuclear medicine, radiation oncology, arterial surgery). Conclusions: ML using baseline administrative data predicts tamoxifen adherence. Baseline claims may not be sufficient to predict treatment non-adherence. Further validation with enriched longitudinal data may improve model performance for incorporation of predictions into clinical decision support.
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