Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions. Predicting the UnknownPredictions facilitate the formulation of quantitative, testable hypotheses that can be refined and validated empirically [1]. Predictive models have thus become ubiquitous in numerous scientific disciplines, including ecology [2], where they provide means for mapping species distributions, explaining population trends, or quantifying the risks of biological invasions and disease outbreaks (e.g., [3,4]). The practical value of predictive models in supporting policy and decision making has therefore grown rapidly (Box 1) [5]. With that has come an increasing desire to predict (see Glossary) the state of ecological features (e.g., species, habitats) and our likely impacts upon them [5], prompting a shift from explanatory models to anticipatory predictions [2]. However, in many situations, severe data deficiencies preclude the development of specific models, and the collection of new data can be prohibitively costly or simply impossible [6]. It is in this context that interest in transferable models (i.e., those that can be legitimately projected beyond the spatial and temporal bounds of their underlying data [7]) has grown.Transferred models must balance the tradeoff between estimation and prediction bias and variance (homogenization versus nontransferability, sensu [8]). Ultimately, models that can Highlights Models transferred to novel conditions could provide predictions in data-poor scenarios, contributing to more informed management decisions.The determinants of ecological predictability are, however, still insufficiently understood.Predictions from transferred ecological models are affected by species' traits, sampling biases, biotic interactions, nonstationarity, and the degree of environmental dissimilarity between reference and target systems.We synthesize six technical and six fundamental challenges that, if resolved, will catalyze practical and conceptual advances in model transfers.We propose that the most immediate obstacle to improving understanding lies in the absence of a widely applicable set of metrics for assessing transferability, and that encouraging the development of models grounded in well-established mech...

Blood-feeding arthropods secrete special salivary proteins that suppress the defensive reaction they induce in their hosts. This is in contrast to herbivores, which are thought to be helpless victims of plant defences elicited by their oral secretions. On the basis of the finding that caterpillar regurgitant can reduce the amount of toxic nicotine released by the tobacco plant Nicotiana tabacum, we investigate here whether specific salivary components from the caterpillar Helicoverpa zea might be responsible for this suppression. We find that the enzyme glucose oxidase counteracts the production of nicotine induced by the caterpillar feeding on the plant.

Whether plants respond to cues produced by neighbors has been a topic of much debate. Recent evidence suggests that wild tobacco plants transplanted near experimentally clipped sagebrush neighbors suffer less leaf herbivory than tobacco controls with unclipped neighbors. Here we expand these results by showing evidence for induced resistance in naturally rooted tobacco when sagebrush neighbors are clipped either with scissors or damaged with actual herbivores. Tobacco plants with sagebrush neighbors clipped in both ways had enhanced activity levels of polyphenol oxidase (PPO), a chemical marker of induced resistance in many solanaceous plants. Eavesdropping was found for plants that were naturally rooted, although only when sagebrush and tobacco grew within 10 cm of each other. Although tobacco with clipped neighbors experienced reduced herbivory, tobacco that grew close to sagebrush had lower production of capsules than plants that grew far from sagebrush. When neighboring tobacco rather than sagebrush was clipped, neither levels of PPO nor levels of leaf damage to tobacco were affected. Eavesdropping on neighboring sagebrush, but not neighboring tobacco, may result from plants using a jasmonate signaling system. These results indicate that plants eavesdrop in nature and that this behavior can increase resistance to herbivory although it does not necessarily increase plant fitness.

Spread of the invasive cactus-feeding moth Cactoblastis cactorum has been well documented since its export from Argentina to Australia as a biocontrol agent, and records suggest that all non-native populations are derived from a single collection in the moth's native range. The subsequent global spread of the moth has been complex, and previous research has suggested multiple introductions into North America. There exists the possibility of additional emigrations from the native range in nursery stock during the late twentieth century. Here, we present mitochondrial gene sequence data (COI) from South America (native range) and North America (invasive range) to test the hypothesis that the rapid invasive spread in North America is enhanced by unique genetic combinations from isolated portions of the native range. We found that haplotype richness in the native range of C. cactorum is high and that there was 90% lower richness in Florida than in Argentina. All Florida C. cactorum haplotypes are represented in a single, well-defined clade, which includes collections from the reported region of original export from Argentina. Thus, our data are consistent with the documented history suggesting a single exportation of C. cactorum from the eastern region of the native range. Additionally, the presence of geographic structure in three distinct haplotypes within the same clade across Florida supports the hypothesis of multiple introductions into Florida from a location outside the native range. Because the common haplotypes in Florida are also known to occur in the neighboring Caribbean Islands, the islands are a likely source for independent North American colonization events. Our data show that rapid and successful invasion within North America cannot be attributed to unique genetic combinations. This suggests that successful invasion of the southeastern US is more likely the product of a fortuitous introduction into favorable abiotic conditions and/or defense responses of specific Opuntia hosts, rapid adaptation, or a release from native enemies.

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