There were no deaths among the 85 infants with localized HSV infection. The mortality rate was significantly higher in the 46 neonates with disseminated infection (57 percent) than in the 71 with encephalitis (15 percent). In addition, the risk of death was increased in neonates who were in or near coma at entry (relative risk, 5.2), had disseminated intravascular coagulopathy (relative risk, 3.8), or were premature (relative risk, 3.7). In babies with disseminated disease, HSV pneumonitis was also associated with greater mortality (relative risk, 3.6). In the survivors, morbidity was most frequent in infants with encephalitis (relative risk, 4.4), disseminated infection (relative risk, 2.1), seizures (relative risk, 3.0), or infection with HSV type 2 (relative risk, 4.9). With HSV infection limited to the skin, eyes, or mouth, the presence of three or more recurrences of vesicles was associated with an increased risk of neurologic impairment as compared with two or fewer recurrences.
Using the decision analysis technique and multivariate regression methods, a statistical model was established to define the utility of brain biopsy for diagnostic evaluation of patients with suspected herpes simplex encephalitis (HSE). Two strategies were compared: strategy I, brain biopsy with acyclovir (ACV) treatment for 10 days in biopsy-positive patients, and strategy II, ACV therapy without brain biopsy. Strategy I resulted in a greater 6-month survival rate when the likelihood of patients having HSE was less than 70%. Based on the current estimated prevalence of HSE (for patients with suspected HSE) of 35%, strategy I showed a slight advantage of a 3.2% increase in 6-month survival rate. An individual patient's chance of a positive brain biopsy can be predicted using a mathematical equation based on several important clinical assessments. This equation in conjunction with the decision analysis is a useful guide for the clinical management of patients with regard to brain biopsy.
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