Undetectable hs-cTnT at presentation has very high negative predictive value, which may be considered to rule out AMI, identifying patients at low risk of adverse events. Pending further validation, this strategy may reduce the need for serial testing and empirical treatment, enabling earlier reassurance for patients and fewer unnecessary evaluations and hospital admissions.

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There is intense interest in the identification of novel biomarkers which improve the diagnosis of heart failure. Serum samples from 52 patients with systolic heart failure (EF < 40% plus signs and symptoms of failure) and 57 controls were analyzed by gas chromatography -time of flight -mass spectrometry and the raw data reduced to 272 statistically robust metabolite peaks. 38 peaks showed a significant difference between case and control (p < 5·10 )5 ). Two such metabolites were pseudouridine, a modified nucleotide present in t-and rRNA and a marker of cell turnover, as well as the tricarboxylic acid cycle intermediate 2-oxoglutarate. Furthermore, 3 further new compounds were also excellent discriminators between patients and controls: 2-hydroxy, 2-methylpropanoic acid, erythritol and 2,4,6-trihydroxypyrimidine. Although renal disease may be associated with heart failure, and metabolites associated with renal disease and other markers were also elevated (e.g. urea, creatinine and uric acid), there was no correlation within the patient group between these metabolites and our heart failure biomarkers, indicating that these were indeed biomarkers of heart failure and not renal disease per se. These findings demonstrate the power of data-driven metabolomics approaches to identify such markers of disease.

ObjectiveWe aimed to derive and validate a clinical decision rule (CDR) for suspected cardiac chest pain in the emergency department (ED). Incorporating information available at the time of first presentation, this CDR would effectively risk-stratify patients and immediately identify: (A) patients for whom hospitalisation may be safely avoided; and (B) high-risk patients, facilitating judicious use of resources.MethodsIn two sequential prospective observational cohort studies at heterogeneous centres, we included ED patients with suspected cardiac chest pain. We recorded clinical features and drew blood on arrival. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiac events (MACE) (death, prevalent or incident acute myocardial infarction, coronary revascularisation or new coronary stenosis >50%) within 30 days. The CDR was derived by logistic regression, considering reliable (κ>0.6) univariate predictors (p<0.05) for inclusion.ResultsIn the derivation study (n=698) we derived a CDR including eight variables (high sensitivity troponin T; heart-type fatty acid binding protein; ECG ischaemia; diaphoresis observed; vomiting; pain radiation to right arm/shoulder; worsening angina; hypotension), which had a C-statistic of 0.95 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.97) implying near perfect diagnostic performance. On external validation (n=463) the CDR identified 27.0% of patients as ‘very low risk’ and potentially suitable for discharge from the ED. 0.0% of these patients had prevalent acute myocardial infarction and 1.6% developed MACE (n=2; both coronary stenoses without revascularisation). 9.9% of patients were classified as ‘high-risk’, 95.7% of whom developed MACE.ConclusionsThe Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) rule has the potential to safely reduce unnecessary hospital admissions and facilitate judicious use of high dependency resources.

BackgroundThe original Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes model (MACS) ‘rules in’ and ‘rules out’ acute coronary syndromes (ACS) using high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP) measured at admission. The latter is not always available. We aimed to refine and validate MACS as Troponin-only Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (T-MACS), cutting down the biomarkers to just hs-cTnT.MethodsWe present secondary analyses from four prospective diagnostic cohort studies including patients presenting to the ED with suspected ACS. Data were collected and hs-cTnT measured on arrival. The primary outcome was ACS, defined as prevalent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or incident death, AMI or coronary revascularisation within 30 days. T-MACS was built in one cohort (derivation set) and validated in three external cohorts (validation set).ResultsAt the ‘rule out’ threshold, in the derivation set (n=703), T-MACS had 99.3% (95% CI 97.3% to 99.9%) negative predictive value (NPV) and 98.7% (95.3%–99.8%) sensitivity for ACS, ‘ruling out’ 37.7% patients (specificity 47.6%, positive predictive value (PPV) 34.0%). In the validation set (n=1459), T-MACS had 99.3% (98.3%–99.8%) NPV and 98.1% (95.2%–99.5%) sensitivity, ‘ruling out’ 40.4% (n=590) patients (specificity 47.0%, PPV 23.9%). T-MACS would ‘rule in’ 10.1% and 4.7% patients in the respective sets, of which 100.0% and 91.3% had ACS. C-statistics for the original and refined rules were similar (T-MACS 0.91 vs MACS 0.90 on validation).ConclusionsT-MACS could ‘rule out’ ACS in 40% of patients, while ‘ruling in’ 5% at highest risk using a single hs-cTnT measurement on arrival. As a clinical decision aid, T-MACS could therefore help to conserve healthcare resources.

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These results highlight the need for the development of in-house ESAs that are specific to the patient, treatment, and environment. These data suggest that currently available ESAs may not be clinically applicable and lose their diagnostic value when externally applied.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) following breast cancer chemotherapy is common. Chemotherapy-induced alterations in markers of haemostasis occur during chemotherapy. It is unclear how rapidly this occurs, whether this is upregulated in patients developing VTE and whether changes predict for VTE. Markers of haemostasis, functional clotting assays and vascular endothelial growth factor were measured before chemotherapy and at 24 h, 4 days, 8 days and 3 months following commencement of chemotherapy in early and advanced breast cancer patients and in age-and sex-matched controls. Duplex ultrasound imaging was performed after 1 month or if symptomatic. Of 123 patients, 9.8% developed VTE within 3 months. Activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), prothrombin time (PT), D-dimer, fibrinogen, platelet count, VEGF and fibrinogen were increased in cancer. Fibrinogen, D-dimer, VEGF and tissue factor were increased, at baseline, in patients subsequently developing VTE. D-dimer of less than 500 ng ml À1 has a negative predictive value of 97%. Activated partial thromboplastin time, PT and thrombin -antithrombin showed significantly different trends, as early as within 24 h, in response to chemotherapy in patients subsequently developing VTE. Markers of coagulation and procoagulants are increased, before chemotherapy, in patients who subsequently develop VTE. A group of patients at minimal risk of VTE can be identified, allowing targeted thrombopropylaxis to the higher risk group.