Bayesian models of autism suggest that alterations in context‐sensitive prediction error weighting may underpin sensory perceptual alterations, such as hypersensitivities. We used an auditory oddball paradigm with pure tones arising from high or low uncertainty contexts to determine whether autistic individuals display differences in context adjustment relative to neurotypicals. We did not find group differences in early prediction error responses indexed by mismatch negativity. A dimensional approach revealed a positive correlation between context‐dependent prediction errors and subjective reports of auditory sensitivities, but not with autistic traits. These findings suggest that autism studies may benefit from accounting for sensory sensitivities in group comparisons. Lay Summary We aimed to understand if autistic and non‐autistic groups showed differences in their electrical brain activity measured by electroencephalography (EEG) when listening to surprising tones infrequently embedded in a statistical pattern. We found no differences between the autistic and the non‐autistic group in their EEG response to the surprising sound even if the pattern switched, indicating their ability to learn a pattern. We did find that, as subjective sensory sensitivities (but not autistic traits) increased, there were increasingly large differences between the EEG responses to surprising tones that were embedded in the different statistical patterns of tones. These findings show that perceptual alterations may be a function of sensory sensitivities, but not necessarily autistic traits. We suggest that future EEG studies in autism may benefit from accounting for sensory sensitivities.

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