Objective: To better inform efforts to treat and control the current outbreak with a comprehensive characterization of COVID-19. Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and CNKI (Chinese Database) for studies published as of March 2, 2020, and we searched references of identified articles. Studies were reviewed for methodological quality. A random-effects model was used to pool results. Heterogeneity was assessed using I 2 . Publication bias was assessed using Egger's test. Results: 43 studies involving 3600 patients were included. Among COVID-19 patients, fever (83.3% [95% CI 78.4-87.7]), cough (60.3% [54.2-66.3]), and fatigue (38.0% [29.8-46.5]) were the most common clinical symptoms. The most common laboratory abnormalities were elevated C-reactive protein (68.6% [58.2-78.2]), decreased lymphocyte count (57. 4% [44.8-69.5]) and increased lactate dehydrogenase (51.6% [31.4-71.6]). ) and bilateral pneumonia (73.2% [63.4-82.1]) were the most frequently reported findings on computed tomography. The overall estimated proportion of severe cases and case-fatality rate (CFR) was 25.6% (17.4-34.9) and 3.6% (1.1-7.2), respectively. CFR and laboratory abnormalities were higher in severe cases, patients from Wuhan, and older patients, but CFR did not differ by gender. Conclusions: The majority of COVID-19 cases are symptomatic with a moderate CFR. Patients living in Wuhan, older patients, and those with medical comorbidities tend to have more severe clinical symptoms and higher CFR.
The cases of stomach cancer (SC) incidence are increasing per year and the SC burden has remained very high in some countries. We aimed to evaluate the global geographical variation in SC incidence and temporal trends from 1978 to 2007, with an emphasis on the effect of birth cohort. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model were applied. From 2003 to 2007, male rate were 1.5- to 3-fold higher than female in all countries. Rates were highest in Eastern Asian and South American countries. Except for Uganda, all countries showed favorable trends. Pronounced cohort-specific increases in risk for recent birth cohorts were seen in Brazil, Colombia, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Uganda and US white people for males and in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Iceland, India, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Uganda, US black and white people for females. The cohort-specific ratio for male significantly decreased in Japan, Malta and Spain for cohorts born since 1950 and in Austria, China, Croatia, Ecuador, Russia, Switzerland and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960 and for female in Japan for cohorts born since 1950 and in Canada, China, Croatia, Latvia, Russia and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960. Disparities in incidence and carcinogenic risk persist worldwide. The favorable trends may be due to changes in environmental exposure and lifestyle, including decreased Helicobacter pylori prevalence, increased intake of fresh fruits and vegetables, the availability of refrigeration and decreased intake of salted and preserved food and smoking prevalence.
BackgroundIn China, dengue remains an important public health issue with expanded areas and increased incidence recently. Accurate and timely forecasts of dengue incidence in China are still lacking. We aimed to use the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms to develop an accurate predictive model of dengue.Methodology/Principal findingsWeekly dengue cases, Baidu search queries and climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) during 2011–2014 in Guangdong were gathered. A dengue search index was constructed for developing the predictive models in combination with climate factors. The observed year and week were also included in the models to control for the long-term trend and seasonality. Several machine learning algorithms, including the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm, step-down linear regression model, gradient boosted regression tree algorithm (GBM), negative binomial regression model (NBM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) linear regression model and generalized additive model (GAM), were used as candidate models to predict dengue incidence. Performance and goodness of fit of the models were assessed using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and R-squared measures. The residuals of the models were examined using the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function analyses to check the validity of the models. The models were further validated using dengue surveillance data from five other provinces. The epidemics during the last 12 weeks and the peak of the 2014 large outbreak were accurately forecasted by the SVR model selected by a cross-validation technique. Moreover, the SVR model had the consistently smallest prediction error rates for tracking the dynamics of dengue and forecasting the outbreaks in other areas in China.Conclusion and significanceThe proposed SVR model achieved a superior performance in comparison with other forecasting techniques assessed in this study. The findings can help the government and community respond early to dengue epidemics.
BackgroundOvarian cancer (OC) is the seventh most common malignancy worldwide and the most lethal gynaecological malignancy. We aimed to explore global geographical patterns and temporal trends from 1973 to 2015 for 41 countries in OC incidence and especially to analyse the birth cohort effect to gain further insight into the underlying causal factors of OC and identify countries with increasing risk of OC.MethodsOC data were drawn from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents databases and online databases published by governments. The joinpoint regression model was applied to detect changes in OC trends. The age–period–cohort model was applied to explore age and birth cohort effects.ResultsThe age-standardized rate of OC incidence ranged from 3.0 to 11.4 per 100,000 women worldwide in 2012. The highest age-standardized rate was observed in Central and Eastern Europe, with 11.4 per 100,000 women in 2012. For the most recent 10-year period, the increasing trends were mainly observed in Central and South America, Asia and Central and Eastern Europe. The largest significant increase was observed in Brazil, with an average annual percentage change of 4.4%. For recent birth cohorts, cohort-specific increases in risk were pronounced in Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Lithuania, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Malta, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Russia, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, India, Japan, the Philippines and Thailand.ConclusionsDisparities in the incidence and risk of OC persist worldwide. The increased risk of birth cohort in OC incidence was observed for most countries in Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central and South America. The reason for the increasing OC risk for recent birth cohorts in these countries should be investigated with further epidemiology studies.
Conclusions: Our analysis found a sustained R c and prolonged incubation/ infectious periods, suggesting COVID-19 is highly infectious. Although interventions in China have been effective in controlling secondary transmission, sustained global efforts are needed to contain an emerging pandemic. Alternative interventions can be explored using modelling studies to better inform policymaking as the outbreak continues.
Introduction Social disruption associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) threatens to impede access to regular healthcare, including for people living with HIV (PLHIV), potentially resulting in antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruption (ATI). We aimed to explore the characteristics and factors associated with ATI during the COVID‐19 outbreak in China. Methods We conducted an online survey among PLHIV by convenience sampling through social media between 5 and 17 February 2020. Respondents were asked to report whether they were at risk of ATI (i.e. experienced ATI, risk of imminent ATI, threatened but resolved risk of ATI [obtaining ART prior to interruption]) or were not at risk of ATI associated with the COVID‐19 outbreak. PLHIV were also asked to report perceived risk factors for ATI and sources of additional ART. The factors associated with the risk of ATI were assessed using logistic regression. We also evaluated the factors associated with experienced ATI. Results A total of 5084 PLHIV from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in mainland China completed the survey, with valid response rate of 99.4%. The median age was 31 years (IQR 27 to 37), 96.5% of participants were men, and 71.3% were men who had sex with men. Over one‐third (35.1%, 1782/5084) reported any risk of ATI during the COVID‐19 outbreak, including 2.7% (135/5084) who experienced ATI, 18.0% (917/5084) at risk of imminent ATI and 14.4% (730/5084) at threatened but resolved risk. PLHIV with ATI were more likely to have previous interruptions in ART (aOR 8.3, 95% CI 5.6 to 12.3), travelled away from where they typically receive HIV care (aOR 3.0, 95% CI 2.1 to 4.5), stayed in an area that implemented citywide lockdowns or travel restrictions to control COVID‐19 (aOR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4 to 4.6), and be in permanent residence in a rural area (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 2.3 to 5.8). Conclusions A significant proportion of PLHIV in China are at risk of ATI during the COVID‐19 outbreak and some have already experienced ATI. Correlates of ATI and self‐reported barriers to ART suggest that social disruptions from COVID‐19 have contributed to ATI. Our findings demonstrate an urgent need for policies and interventions to maintain access to HIV care during public health emergencies.
Background The global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions. Objective We aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities. Methods Data on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. Results Global ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases. Conclusions LC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide.
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