Climate change is expected to worsen flood risks by increasing precipitation in and around the Surat City. Thus, to study effect of climate change on the Surat City's stormwater drainage network, ranking of general circulation models (GCMs) and generation of future annual maximum rainfall series is needed, which is not performed by any reviewed study and performed in the present study by using hybrid approach. The ‘hybrid approach’ refers to combination of past performance approach used for ranking of GCMs and envelope approach based on future climate projections. To rank 21 GCMs belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, a past performance approach is employed by using four performance indicators, which are evaluated on the basis of Surat's simulated and observed rainfall data corresponding to the period 1969–2005. By using entropy method, weights are assigned to different performance indicators and then ranking of GCMs is performed by employing TOPSIS method. The top five ranked GCMs are used to generate future annual maximum rainfall series by employing Reliability Ensemble Averaging method corresponding to Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. This study will be helpful for future climate and hydrologic studies to be performed in the study area.
It is essential to study the economical impact of watershed development project on the people in a watershed for its justification based on the huge investments made in it by various government and non-government organisations (NGOs). In the present study, the economical impact of the Kachhighati Watershed development project executed during 1996-2000 is analysed using tools like cost-benefit analysis (CBA), present value (PV) and sensitivity analysis. Kachhighati Watershed is one of the micro watersheds of the Godavari Basin located in Aurangabad District of Maharashtra State, India. The watershed development project was implemented by an NGO named Dilasa Janvikas Pradhikaran. The benefit-cost (BC) ratio of the Kachhighati Watershed development project estimated based on the total present value of costs (TPVC) and the total present value of benefits (TPVB) is calculated as 7.1658, which is more than 1. Hence it is ascertain that the project is cost beneficial. Also the average annual BC ratio of the Kachhighati Watershed development project based on PVs during the first 5-year block period (1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001) is 3.1397, whereas that in the second 5-year block period (2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006) after the implementation of project is 5.2870, which also ascertains the economic appraisal of the people living in the watershed. In the present paper, the BC ratio of the entire project life, 5-year block period and individual year is estimated based on the PVs and followed by sensitivity analysis. This type of economic analysis on various time scales is absent in earlier work, and this is the new contribution by the present paper. The results of the study show usefulness of the watershed development project for appraisal of the economic status of the people in the watershed. Economic evaluation as a tool is found effective for the financial validation of watershed projects.
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