Polymorphisms in MHC-I protein sequences across human populations significantly impacts viral peptide binding capacity and thus alters T cell immunity to infection. In the present study, we assess the relationship between observed SARS-CoV-2 population mortality and the predicted viral binding capacities of 52 common MHC-I alleles. Potential SARS-CoV-2 MHC-I peptides are identified using a consensus MHC-I binding and presentation prediction algorithm, called EnsembleMHC. Starting with nearly 3.5 million candidates, we resolve a few hundred highly probable MHC-I peptides. By weighing individual MHC allele-specific SARS-CoV-2 binding capacity with population frequency in 23 countries, we discover a strong inverse correlation between predicted population SARS-CoV-2 peptide binding capacity and mortality rate. Our computations reveal that peptides derived from the structural proteins of the virus produce a stronger association with observed mortality rate, highlighting the importance of S, N, M, E proteins in driving productive immune responses.
Polymorphism in MHC-I protein sequences across human populations significantly impacts their binding to viral peptides and alters T cell immunity to infection. Prioritization of MHC-I restricted viral epitopes remains a fundamental challenge for understanding adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Here, we present a consensus MHC-I binding prediction model, EnsembleMHC, based on the biochemical and structural basis of peptide presentation to aid the discovery of SARS-CoV-2 MHC-I peptides. We performed immunopeptidome predictions of SARS-CoV-2 proteins across 52 common MHC-I alleles identifying 658 high confidence peptides. Analysis of the resulting peptide-allele assignment distribution demonstrated significant variation across the allele panel up to an order of magnitude. Using MHC-I population-based allele frequencies, we estimated the average SARS-CoV-2 peptide population binding capacity across 21 individual countries. We have discovered a strong inverse association between the predicted population SARS-CoV-2 peptide binding capacity and overall mortality. Furthermore, we found that the consideration of only structural proteins produced a stronger association with observed death rate, highlighting their importance in protein-targeted immune responses. The 108 predicted SARS-CoV-2 structural protein peptides were shown to be derived from enriched regions in the originating protein, and present minimal risk for disruption by mutation. These results suggest that the immunologic fitness of both individuals and populations to generate class I-restricted T cell immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection may impact clinical outcome from viral infection.
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