patients (PPV: 0.44). PPV was 0.89 and 0.80 for dose at F10 and F15 respectively using a DNTCP cutoff for the allocation of ART of 5%. Using other DNTCP cutoffs did not significantly improve PPV. With this cutoff the negative predictive value was 0.90, 0.94 and 0.93 for clinical judgement, F10 and F15. Conclusion: Clinical judgement poorly identifies patients who have a >5% DNTCP between planned and delivered dose. To identify them more accurately, NTCP models based on the dose differences between planned and delivered dose at day ten could be used; thus allocating ART to patients who are most likely to benefit.
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