Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract This paper develops and estimates an equilibrium model where heterogeneous firms can exploit two margins of informality: (i) not register their business, the extensive margin; and (ii) hire workers "off the books", the intensive margin. The model encompasses the main competing frameworks for understanding informality and provides a natural setting to infer their empirical relevance. The counterfactual analysis shows that once the intensive margin is accounted for, aggregate firm and labor informality need not move in the same direction as a result of policy changes. Lower informality can be, but is not necessarily associated to higher GDP, TFP or welfare.
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This article reviews the economic literature on informality, its causes, and its consequences for development. It covers a comprehensive body of research that ranges from well-identified experimental studies to equilibrium macro models, and which more recently includes structural models that integrate both micro and macro effects. The results available in the literature indicate that lowering the costs of formality is not an effective policy to reduce informality but may generate positive aggregate effects, such as higher output and total factor productivity (TFP). The most effective formalization policy is to increase enforcement on the extensive margin but not on the intensive margin of informality. The former generates substantial gains in aggregate TFP and output, without necessarily increasing unemployment. However, the overall welfare impacts are likely to depend on the transitional dynamics between steady states, which remains an open area for future research. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Economics, Volume 12 is August 3, 2020. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
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