The CARICOMP monitoring network gathered standardized data from 52 seagrass sampling stations at 22 sites (mostly Thalassia testudinum-dominated beds in reef systems) across the Wider Caribbean twice a year over the period 1993 to 2007 (and in some cases up to 2012). Wide variations in community total biomass (285 to >2000 g dry m−2) and annual foliar productivity of the dominant seagrass T. testudinum (<200 and >2000 g dry m−2) were found among sites. Solar-cycle related intra-annual variations in T. testudinum leaf productivity were detected at latitudes > 16°N. Hurricanes had little to no long-term effects on these well-developed seagrass communities, except for 1 station, where the vegetation was lost by burial below ∼1 m sand. At two sites (5 stations), the seagrass beds collapsed due to excessive grazing by turtles or sea-urchins (the latter in combination with human impact and storms). The low-cost methods of this regional-scale monitoring program were sufficient to detect long-term shifts in the communities, and fifteen (43%) out of 35 long-term monitoring stations (at 17 sites) showed trends in seagrass communities consistent with expected changes under environmental deterioration.
In order to enhance in terms of accuracy and predict the modeling of the potential distribution of species, the integration of using principal components of environmental variables as input of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) has been proposed in this study. Principal components selected previously from the principal component analysis results performed in Arc
GIS
in the environmental variables was used as an input data of MaxEnt instead of raw data to model the potential distribution of red spiny lobster from the year 1997 to 2015 and for three different future scenarios 2020, 2050, and 2070. One set of six original environmental variables pertaining to the years 1997–2015 and one set of four variables for future scenarios were transformed independently into a single multiband raster in Arc
GIS
in order to select the variables whose eigenvalues explains more than 5% of the total variance with the purpose to use in the modeling prediction in MaxEnt. The years 1997 and 1998 were chosen to compare the accuracy of the model, showing better results using principal components instead of raw data in terms of area under the curve and partial receiver operating characteristic as well as better predictions of suitable areas. Using principal components as input of MaxEnt enhances the prediction of good habitat suitability for red spiny lobster; however, future scenarios suggest an adequate management by researches to elaborate appropriate guidelines for the conservation of the habitat for this valuable specie with face to the climate change.
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