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This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.

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The phenomenon of benign overfitting is one of the key mysteries uncovered by deep learning methodology: deep neural networks seem to predict well, even with a perfect fit to noisy training data. Motivated by this phenomenon, we consider when a perfect fit to training data in linear regression is compatible with accurate prediction. We give a characterization of gaussian linear regression problems for which the minimum norm interpolating prediction rule has near-optimal prediction accuracy. The characterization is in terms of two notions of the effective rank of the data covariance. It shows that overparameterization is essential for benign overfitting in this setting: the number of directions in parameter space that are unimportant for prediction must significantly exceed the sample size.

Abstract. The last few years have witnessed important new developments in the theory and practice of pattern classification. We intend to survey some of the main new ideas that have led to these recent results.Mathematics Subject Classification. 62G08, 60E15, 68Q32.

Concentration inequalities deal with deviations of functions of independent random variables from their expectation. In the last decade new tools have been introduced making it possible to establish simple and powerful inequalities. These inequalities are at the heart of the mathematical analysis of various problems in machine learning and made it possible to derive new efficient algorithms. This text attempts to summarize some of the basic tools.

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The stochastic multiarmed bandit problem is well understood when the reward distributions are sub-Gaussian. In this paper, we examine the bandit problem under the weaker assumption that the distributions have moments of order , for some. Surprisingly, moments of order 2 (i.e., finite variance) are sufficient to obtain regret bounds of the same order as under sub-Gaussian reward distributions. In order to achieve such regret, we define sampling strategies based on refined estimators of the mean such as the truncated empirical mean, Catoni's -estimator, and the median-of-means estimator. We also derive matching lower bounds that also show that the best achievable regret deteriorates when .Index Terms-Heavy-tailed distributions, regret bounds, robust estimators, stochastic multi-armed bandit.