Estimating annual recharge is an important input to the management of groundwater resources. Available hydrologic information is used to derive a model‐based prior distribution function of annual recharge from an ephemeral stream. To illustrate the methodology, a linear transfer model defining groundwater recharge as a function of streamflow is postulated from stream characteristics in arid lands. Parameters of the groundwater model are identified by using streamflow data as input and recharge data as output. The parameters are then used in an event‐based approach to determine the distribution function for annual recharge. The model is applied to the Rillito Creek, a part of the Tucson alluvial basin, Arizona. The method, however, is applicable to other areas, can incorporate more sophisticated transfer functions, and may be extended to include larger watersheds consisting of multiple reaches.
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