In this paper we present a new prediction algorithm for the generation of International Atomic Time (TAI). The new prediction algorithm takes into account the frequency drift which affects most of the participating atomic clocks. In particular, we focus on the effect of the application of the new model on the prediction term for the frequency drift affecting the free atomic time scale (EAL). We also present its effect on TAI performance and on atomic clock weights.

Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) has considerably changed in recent years. The evolution of UTC follows the scientific and industrial progress by developing appropriate models, more adapted calculation algorithms, more efficient and rapid dissemination processes and a well defined traceability chain. The enormous technical progress worldwide has resulted in an impressive number of atomic clocks now available for UTC calculation. The refined time and frequency transfer techniques are approaching the accuracy requested for the new definition of the SI second. The more regular operation of primary frequency standards (PFS) increases the accuracy of UTC and opens a possible new development for time scale algorithms. From the metrological point of view all the ingredients are available for major improvements to UTC. Dissemination of UTC is done by the monthly publication of results in BIPM Circular T. This document makes a quality evaluation of local representations of UTC, named UTC(k), in national institutes, and other organizations, by giving the evolution of their offsets relative to UTC and their respective uncertainties. The clock models adopted and the time transfer techniques have progressively improved over the years, assuring the long-term stability of UTC. Each computation of UTC processes data over one month with five-day sampling and publication. A rapid solution of UTC (UTCr) has existed since 2013, and consists of the processing of daily sampled data over four consecutive weeks, computed and published weekly. It gives quick access to UTC, and allows participating laboratories to better monitor the offsets of their realizations to the reference UTC. The traditional monthly publication, containing results of all the laboratories contributing data to the BIPM for the computation of UTC was complemented after the establishment of the Mutual Recognition Arrangement of the International Committee on Weights and Measures (CIPM MRA). This time comparison, which has been the responsibility of the BIPM since 1988, added as a complement the key comparison on time defined by the Consultative Committee for Time and Frequency (CCTF) in 2006 as CCTF-K001.UTC, where the results published are those of national metrology institutes (NMIs) signatories of the CIPM MRA, or designated institutes (DIs). The traceability issues are formalized in the framework of the CIPM MRA. The development of time metrology activities in the different metrology regions, supports the actions of the BIPM time department to improve the accuracy of [UTC–UTC(k)], where the coordination with the Regional Metrology Organizations (RMOs) has a key role. This paper presents an overview of UTC.

In this paper we present a new weighting algorithm for the generation of Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The new weighting procedure is based on the idea that the best clocks are the most predictable. The effect of the new algorithm on the weight distribution and on the stability of UTC is presented and discussed. An improvement in the frequency stability of UTC at both short and long terms is observed, as well as a better clock weight distribution in the ensemble.

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The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is presented with its main mathematical properties and with original results on the first crossing times in case of two threshold barriers. The interpretation as filtered white noise, its stationary spectrum, and Allan variance are also presented for easiness of use in the time and frequency metrology field. An improved simulation scheme for the evaluation of first passage times between two barriers is also introduced.

In this paper we use a mathematical model based on stochastic differential equations to predict the behaviour of atomic clocks. We consider several different cases with deterministic and random signatures and we obtain the best clock prediction together with its uncertainty. The results given by our mathematical model are compared with the results of the traditional method of extrapolating clock behaviour from the past data.Wyye test our methods using experimental data from caesium and hydrogen masers maintained by the Italian time laboratory (INRIM), showing the good performance of our model.

Results are presented from a theoretical and experimental investigation of the frequency transfer uncertainty (FTU) in long-distance comparisons of frequency standards. The FTU can be an important component of the total uncertainty in such comparisons. The use of the Allan deviation in characterizing the FTU is analysed theoretically and it is shown that for certain noise types the Allan deviation is biased high. A potentially more accurate first difference statistic that can be used in certain situations is also discussed. In addition, an experimental determination of the noise types and levels in common transfer techniques is presented. It is shown that FTUs approaching 1 part in 10 16 at 30 days are possible with current transfer methods. Finally, a method is presented for estimating the FTU in calibrating International Atomic Time (TAI) with a primary frequency standard.

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