POSSUM, a Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity, is described. This system has been devised from both a retrospective and prospective analysis and the present paper attempts to validate it prospectively. Logistic regression analysis yielded statistically significant equations for both mortality and morbidity (P less than 0.001). When displayed graphically zones of increasing morbidity and mortality rates could be defined which could be of value in surgical audit. The scoring system produced assessments for morbidity and mortality rates which did not significantly differ from observed rates.

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POSSUM and APACHE II scores from 117 consecutive admissions to a high-dependency unit after major surgery were correlated with 30-day morbidity and mortality rates. Thirteen patients (11 per cent) died and 59 (50 per cent) developed a postoperative complication. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis showed POSSUM to have good predictive value for mortality (area under curve 0.75) and morbidity (area under curve 0.82). APACHE II scores had a significantly inferior predictive value for mortality (area under curve 0.54) (P < 0.002). POSSUM was superior to APACHE II in prediction of mortality in patients admitted to a high-dependency unit after general surgery. Prediction of postoperative complications by POSSUM is accurate and may be useful for audit.

A 1-year prospective analysis was undertaken of all non-day-case general surgery in a district general hospital. Using the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) scoring system 3004 patients were assessed. From the predictions of mortality and morbidity so obtained, a quality measure, the ratio of observed to expected numbers of deaths and complications (O:E ratio) was determined for each surgeon, both overall and within specialty zones. The present study demonstrates the serious hazard in using 'raw' uncorrected mortality and morbidity statistics to compare surgeon performance. Mortality rates varied from 1.0 to 4.9 per cent whereas O:E ratios ranged from 0.83 to 1.06; morbidity rates varied from 5.3 to 12.6 per cent with O:E ratios 0.86-1.02. Great misunderstanding may result from the publication of surgeon or hospital 'league tables'. The present study demonstrates a technique that might allow surgeon performance to be monitored adequately and accurately.

We describe the development and validation of a scoring system for auditing orthopaedic surgery. It is a minor modification of the POSSUM scoring system widely used in general surgery. The orthopaedic POSSUM system which we have developed gives predictions for mortality and morbidity which correlate well with the observed rates in a sample of 2326 orthopaedic operations over a period of 12 months.