As developing countries industrialize and rich countries continue to devour power, global energy demand is projected to increase 60% in the next 25-30 years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Fossil fuels will continue to dominate, estimated to account for 85% of future demand. Even if the Saudi Kingdom pumps to full capacity, currently rated at 15 million barrels per day, it is anticipated that oil markets will face continuing high demand, which is to say that the Excess Demand for Oil (EDO) characterizing world oil markets since 1973, will continue to grow. Assuming current rates of consumption, U.S. reserves are forecast to last only another nine years, as domestic production in the U.S. continues a decades-long decline.This paper, which forms part of a comprehensive study to develop economic models based on futuristic energy pricing policies, increasing globalization and better understanding of environmental impacts, analyzes oil prices over the last two decades as a basis for discussing four principal scenarios for predicting a general oil-price trend for the coming two decades. Concluding that a major supply-alleviating breakthrough from some other non-fossil-fuel alternative is unlikely, it therefore rules out the "Optimistic Model" scenario of a long-term steady-state for oil prices. After carefully considering the exploration efforts to increase the international reserves through new discoveries on the one hand, and the different implemented techniques of improved oil recovery (IOR) for maximizing production from discovered reservoirs on the other, it concludes instead that any of the other three models (two of them categorized as "Realistic") could emerge sometime in the next 3-5 years as the trend-setter.
Relying solely on traditional drilling technology to estimate the world’s proven Oil Reserves denies the likelihood that billions of barrels of unfound oil lay just outside the industry’s technological reach. With substantial financial and legal assistance and government support to develop newer technologies like Deep-Water Drilling (DWD), the major oil companies and the US White House are confident that new fields can be brought into production that should increase supplies and stabilize or lower energy prices. Each new find, they estimate, will help increase the world’s proven oil reserves allowing investors and consumers to feel more optimistic about providing for their future energy needs. It is also hoped that this new technology will lead to safer, more economic and environmentally appealing exploration and production methods (Belhaj, et al)1. Pertinent questions arise as to what impact BP’s tragic oil spill may have on the future of Deep-Water Drilling and on the future of energy prices? Does industry have the technology to successfully and economically exploit fields using DWD? What role should governments play in regulating dangerous, environmentally unsound drilling practices? Should regulations be allowed to impede progress? Identifying DWD as having a major influence on cost and being a critical parameter in any energy equation, the authors answer these questions and present two models that pessimistically and realistically describe the future role of DWD in places like China, India and Brazil over the next 50 years – places with growing populations and economies, but little government oversight. Conclusions are reached with a discussion about the need for DWD in the current economic slowdown in advanced economies that have witnessed decreased oil demand and why traditional models affecting energy prices have been unsuccessful in predicting the current high energy prices.
Gas permeability measurement is introduced to replace liquid permeability that has been associated with several complications and thus poses serious concerns. The resultant permeability value is an average property of the whole sample based on Darcy's approach. The Automated Probe Gas Permeameter (APGP) is gaining greater acceptance in lab and field applications for its simplicity and flexibility in measuring permeability at any petite spot on a sample surface and the ability to take measurements from irregular-shaped/different-sized samples at relatively short time intervals as compared to conventional techniques. The main concerns regarding the minimum sample size that can sustain permeability measurement, the question of how far the permeameter probe should be placed away from the boundary of the sample and the optimum size of the probe raise many doubts about the fate of this technology.The lab program utilized five standard Berea sandstone samples, three carbonate samples retrieved from currently producing oil reservoirs and one outcrop limestone sample. Obtained data have been analyzed using a designated regression package of modeling variograms. An analysis of bivariate modeling has been used to relate measured permeability to petrophysical properties of samples; mainly porosity, bulk permeability, pore throat quality/distribution and fracture parameters, if any.Existed concerns about the use of the Automated Probe Gas Permeameter have been investigated. Results show a strong relation between sample size, lateral/axial radius of investigation, and measured permeability. Other petrophysical properties show interesting, but moderate relationships. Fractured and vugy samples should be treated very carefully in terms of deciding probe position and data interpretation.Employment of set criterion may dramatically increase the implementation of the Automated Probe Gas Permeameter and improve confidence in resulting data. Field utilization of the equipment enhances efficiency in decision making right on the spot.
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