This paper employs network analysis to study world trade from 1995 to 2014. We focus on the main connective features of the world trade network (WTN) and their dynamics. Results suggest that countries' efforts to attain the benefits of trade have resulted in an intertwined network that is increasingly dense, reciprocal, and clustered. Trade linkages are distributed homogeneously among countries, but their intensity (i.e. their value) is highly concentrated in a small set of countries. The main connective features of the WTN were not affected by the 2007-2008 international financial crisis. However, we find that the crisis marks a turning point in the evolution of the WTN from a twogroup (led by the US and Germany) to a three-group (led by the US, Germany, and China) hierarchical structure; gravity models of international trade may explain this evolution. Furthermore, we find that WTN's connective features do not conform to a linear aggregation of sectorial trade networks.
Previous studies on the effect of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy on capital flows in Emerging Economies have not been conclusive. I analyze if the effect of these policies on capital flows is heterogeneous between countries. This approach could be the smoking gun in this debate as I attempt to find evidence of a specific mechanism by which Unconventional Monetary Policy could affect the pattern of capital flows in Emerging Economies. The results suggest that Unconventional Monetary Policy has a significant effect on capital flows which depends on the type of measure adopted and the degree of financial exposure of each country to the United States. (JEL C23, E52, E58, F21, F32)
This paper employs network analysis to study world trade from 1995 to 2014. We focus on the main connective features of the world trade network (WTN) and their dynamics. Results suggest that countries' efforts to attain the benefits of trade have resulted in an intertwined network that is increasingly dense, reciprocal, and clustered. Trade linkages are distributed homogeneously among countries, but their intensity (i.e. their value) is highly concentrated in a small set of countries. The main connective features of the WTN were not affected by the 2007-2008 international financial crisis. However, we find that the crisis marks a turning point in the evolution of the WTN from a twogroup (led by the US and Germany) to a three-group (led by the US, Germany, and China) hierarchical structure; gravity models of international trade may explain this evolution. Furthermore, we find that WTN's connective features do not conform to a linear aggregation of sectorial trade networks.JEL Classification: F10, F14, D85
In this paper we analyze the effects of financial constraints on the exchange rate through the portfolio balance channel. Our contribution is twofold: First, we construct a tractable two-period general equilibrium model in which financial constraints inhibit capital flows. Hence, departures from the uncovered interest rate parity condition are used to explain the effects of sterilized foreign exchange intervention. Second, using high frequency data during 2004-2015, we use a sharp policy discontinuity within Colombian regulatory banking limits to empirically test for the portfolio balance channel. Consistent with our model's postulations, our findings suggest that the effects on the exchange rate are short-lived, and significant only when banking constraints are binding.JEL Classification: C14, C21, C31, E58, F31Keywords: Sterilized foreign exchange intervention, portfolio balance channel, uncovered interest rate parity, financial constraints, regression discontinuity design * We thank participants at the 3rd BBC conference in Geneva. We also thank Jesahel Higuera for his research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Banco de la República nor its Board of Directors.
The objective of this article is to study the evolution of Colombian liberalization and integration into world trade from 1996 to 2018. We achieve our objective by measuring Colombia's importance in the world trade network-by value (US dollars) and volume (tons). We employ several types of network centrality metrics to measure importance (i.e. degree, strength, hub, authority), and examine their dynamics against a set of regional peers that serve as benchmark countries. Consistent with previous literature, more than two decades of dedicated trade policies and institutional changes resulted in increased value and volume of exports and imports. However, when compared with regional peers such as Chile, Brazil, Mexico, and Peru, and China and the United States as trade leading countries, Colombia's centrality in the world trade network did not improve accordingly. Further, excluding a set of key commodities across the world trade network (i.e. minerals, fuels, and metals) resulted in a noticeable worsening in Colombia's centrality. We conclude that Colombia's centrality in the world trade network did not improve, whereas that of some of her regional peers did manifestly (i.e. Peru and Chile). Results highlight the perils of analyzing a country's trade dynamics in isolation and emphasizes the usefulness of examining the world trade network. From the economic policy and institutional perspectives, results underscore the challenges ahead to better integrate into world markets and to achieve long-term economic growth from trade.
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