Abstract. Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-asusual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (À16%) and pasture (À13%). Areas with particularly high rates of landuse change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.

No abstract

Risk assessments can be used to identify threats, which vary both in space and time, to declining species. Just as hot spots describe locations where threat processes operate at a higher rate than in surrounding areas, hot moments refer to periods when threat rates are highest. However, the identification of hot moments can be challenging because the temporal complexity of some threat processes makes their effects on population viability difficult to predict. Declining throughout much of their range, Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) populations are potentially most vulnerable to road mortality where road densities and traffic volumes are high. The temporal variations in road-mortality risk faced by these and other semiaquatic turtles at the population level are a consequence of several factors, including sex-specific movement characteristics and seasonal changes in traffic volume. We examined these risk factors for Blanding's turtle populations in Maine, USA, by integrating temporally explicit roadkill probabilities with demographic parameters informed by local and range-wide studies. Specifically, we used population simulations to estimate the relative risk for 14 2-week periods during the turtles' active season. Our analysis clearly identified early summer as a period of elevated risk, with June through mid-July signaling a road-mortality hot moment for Blanding's turtles (for both M and F). These findings provide guidance for the implementation of temporally explicit conservation measures such as cautionary road signage, traffic management, and public outreach that, if timed strategically, could help to mitigate population impacts from road mortality.

No abstract

Summary 1.Where populations are confined to fragmented, human-dominated landscapes, preventing declines and extirpations will often rely on metapopulation management. Spatially-explicit population viability analyses provide tools to evaluate how well the local management efforts can be combined to conserve metapopulations across large areas. Yet, metapopulation models have rarely been combined with tools to assess the cost-effectiveness of different conservation strategies. 2. European bison Bison bonasus only occur in small, fragmented populations, making their long-term survival dependent on establishing a metapopulation across eastern Europe. We parameterized a European bison metapopulation model based on time-series of bison demography and a habitat suitability map to assess the viability of bison populations in the Carpathians and the relative cost-effectiveness of (i) reintroductions, (ii) wildlife overpasses and (iii) anti-poaching measures in establishing a viable bison metapopulation. 3. Our results suggest that the Carpathians could support a viable metapopulation of European bison provided that active efforts are taken to safeguard bison and connect isolated herds. With such steps, our model forecasts that bison numbers could increase substantially over the next 100 years as local populations increase and bison recolonize parts of the Carpathians. 4. Reintroductions appear to be the most cost-effective approach for establishing a viable bison metapopulation among our scenarios, especially when coupled with wildlife overpasses to improve connectivity among herds. The most promising region for a bison metapopulation in the Carpathians was south-eastern Poland, Ukraine and northern Romania. We identified several candidate regions for reintroductions and wildlife overpasses, especially in the border region of Romania and Ukraine. Site-specific assessments of both habitat suitability, and the costs and benefits of a large bison population, should target those regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight how careful conservation planning can identify solutions to preserve large mammals in human-dominated landscapes. Choosing the most effective option from a range of management strategies is a central challenge for wildlife managers. We have shown that incorporating cost-effectiveness analyses into metapopulation models can elucidate the relative value (gain per unit cost) of different conservation management options, allowing decision makers to choose cost-effective options to preserve large mammals. Our model projections also provide hope for establishing a viable free-ranging European bison population in the Carpathians, one of the last relatively wild areas in Europe.

Over the last century, the U.S. economy has favored large-scale agribusiness over small-scale farming. In some regions, this trend has led to the abandonment of cultivated land, and there is little scholarly literature that discusses how farmers are affected. The goal of this study was to examine Allegany County (NY) farmers’ perceptions of abandoned land and associated correlates. The data were collected through surveys mailed to farmers in Allegany County in 2012. We found that the majority of farmers felt personally affected by abandoned land and expressed the greatest amount of dissatisfaction with the state of the U.S. economy and local, state, and national regulations, especially if they considered themselves Republican. These findings address the sociopolitical significance of abandoned land and contribute to an understanding of how abandoned land affects residents of rural communities who are typically left out of discussions on policies affecting their livelihoods.

Actinozygus splendens (Deflandre) (ex Rhabdolithus) Ahmuellerella octoradiata (Gorka) (ex Discolithus) Arkhangelskiella costata Gartner Arkhangelskiella cymbiformis Vekshina Arkhangelskiella ethmopora Bukry Arkhangelskiella parca Stradner Arkhangelskiella specillata Vekshina *Braarudosphaera bigelowi (Gran & Braarud) (ex Pontosphaera) Campylosphaera dela (Bramlette & Sullivan) (ex Coccolithites) Catinaster calyculus Martini & Bramlette Catinaster coalitus Martini & Bramlette *Ceratolithus cristatus Kamptner Ceratolithus rugosus Bukry & Bramlette Ceratolithus tricorniculatus Gartner Chiasmolithus bidens (Bramlette & Sullivan) (ex Coccolithus)

No abstract