This article and the companion paper aim at reviewing recent empirical and theoretical developments usually grouped under the term Econophysics. Since the name was coined in 1995 by merging the words 'Economics' and 'Physics', this new interdisciplinary field has grown in various directions: theoretical macroeconomics (wealth distribution), microstructure of financial markets (order book modeling), econometrics of financial bubbles and crashes, etc. We discuss the interactions between Physics, Mathematics, Economics and Finance that led to the emergence of Econophysics. We then present empirical studies revealing the statistical properties of financial time series. We begin the presentation with the widely acknowledged 'stylized facts', which describe the returns of financial assets—fat tails, volatility clustering, autocorrelation, etc.—and recall that some of these properties are directly linked to the way 'time' is taken into account. We continue with the statistical properties observed on order books in financial markets. For the sake of illustrating this review, (nearly) all the stated facts are reproduced using our own high-frequency financial database. Finally, contributions to the study of correlations of assets such as random matrix theory and graph theory are presented. The companion paper will review models in Econophysics from the point of view of agent-based modeling.Computational finance, Correlation, Econophysics, Empirical finance,
This article is the second part of a review of recent empirical and theoretical developments usually grouped under the term Econophysics. In the first part, we have reviewed statistical properties of financial times series, statistics exhibited on order books and discussed some studies of correlations of assets. This second part deals with models in Econophysics through the point of view of agent-based modelling. Amongst a large number of multi-agent-based models, we have identified three representative areas. First, using previous work originally presented in the fields of behavioural finance and market microstructure theory, econophysicists have developed agent-based models of order-driven markets that are extensively presented here. Second, kinetic theory models designed to explain some empirical facts on wealth distribution are reviewed. Third, we briefly summarize game theory models by reviewing the now classic minority game and related problems.
Abstract. Motivated by the desire to bridge the gap between the microscopic description of price formation (agent-based modeling) and the stochastic differential equations approach used classically to describe price evolution at macroscopic time scales, we present a mathematical study of the order book as a multidimensional continuous-time Markov chain and derive several mathematical results in the case of independent Poissonian arrival times. In particular, we show that the cancellation structure is an important factor ensuring the existence of a stationary distribution and the exponential convergence towards it. We also prove, by means of the functional central limit theorem (FCLT), that the rescaled-centered price process converges to a Brownian motion. We illustrate the analysis with numerical simulation and comparison against market data.
Lead/lag relationships are an important stylized fact at high frequency. Some assets follow the path of others with a small time lag. We provide indicators to measure this phenomenon using tick-by-tick data. Strongly asymmetric cross-correlation functions are empirically observed, especially in the future/stock case. We confirm the intuition that the most liquid assets (short intertrade duration, narrow bid/ask spread, small volatility, high turnover) tend to lead smaller stocks. However, the most correlated stocks are those with similar levels of liquidity. This lead/lag phenomenon is not constant throughout the day, it shows an intraday seasonality with changes of behaviour at very specific times such as the announcement of macroeconomic figures and the US market opening. These lead/lag relationships become more and more pronounced as we zoom on significant events. We reach 60% of accuracy when forecasting the next midquote variation of the lagger using only the past information of the leader, which is significantly better than using the information of the lagger only. However, a naive strategy based on market orders cannot make any profit of this effect because of the bid/ask spread.
A limit order book is essentially a file on a computer that contains all orders sent to the market, along with their characteristics such as the sign of the order, price, quantity and a timestamp. The majority of organized electronic markets rely on limit order books to store the list of interests of market participants on their central computer. A limit order book contains all the information available on a specific market and it reflects the way the market moves under the influence of its participants. This book discusses several models of limit order books. It begins by discussing the data to assess their empirical properties, and then moves on to mathematical models in order to reproduce the observed properties. Finally, the book presents a framework for numerical simulations. It also covers important modelling techniques including agent-based modelling, and advanced modelling of limit order books based on Hawkes processes. The book also provides in-depth coverage of simulation techniques and introduces general, flexible, open source library concepts useful to readers studying trading strategies in order-driven markets.
International audienceHawkes processes provide a natural framework to model dependenciesbetween the intensities of point processes. In the contextof order-driven financial markets, the relevance of such dependencieshas been amply demonstrated from an empirical, as well as theoretical,standpoint. In this work, we build on previous empirical and numericalstudies and introduce a mathematical model of limit order books basedon Hawkes processes with exponential kernels. After proving a generalstationarity result, we focus on the long-time behaviour of the limit orderbook and the corresponding dynamics of the suitably rescaled price.A formula for the asymptotic (in time) volatility of the price dynamicsinduced by that of the order book is obtained, involving the average offunctions of the various order book events under the stationary distribution
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.