Northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) have received considerable research attention since the 1920s. I evaluated published results for patterns that might be meaningful in developing a general philosophy of habitat management for this species. Bobwhite populations show similar mean demographics (survival, productivity) as climates, landscapes, and predator populations vary about them; this suggests some operational constancy in habitat quality wherever populations persist. Neither food abundance nor habitat type interspersion are satisfactory general predictors of population density on a management area, although interspersion provides a limiting condition (after min. interspersion requirements are met, further interspersion has, at best, neutral effects on density). Long-term, mean density on an area may vary in proportion to the quantity of space (amt permanent cover) that fits the physical, behavioral, and physiological adaptations of bobwhites through time. The goal of habitat management on an area should be to provide bobwhites the opportunity for unconstrained use of space through time (space-time saturation). This common sense outlook seems to have been obscured by unjustified concerns over food and interspersion and lack of a general understanding of successional affiliation. J. WILDL. MANAGE. 61(2):291-301 Key words: bobwhite, Colinus virginianus, cover, demography, food, habitat ecology, habitat management, habitat quality, interspersion, northern bobwhite. Few species have received research and management attention equal to that received by northern bobwhites. Natural history research began in the 1920s and resulted in Stoddard's (1931) landmark book. Since then the species' biology, especially foods, ranges and mobility, population dynamics, and habitat requirements, have been thoroughly and repeatedly documented (Scott 1985). Numerous papers have dealt with management practices such as grazing, prescribed burning, food plots, man-made loafing shelters, chemical and mechanical treatments of habitats, food and water supplementation, and combinations of 2 or more of these practices. The time has come to pause and reflect on the knowledge gained from past research and to determine if generalizations can be drawn from the results. Research results in the bobwhite literature seem to show patterns that are meaningful in developing a general habitat management philosophy. The first is the narrow range of mean demographic variability (survival, production) associated with different climates and landscapes. The second is the usual failure of management practices aimed at improving habitat quality and the consistent success of practices aimed at increasing usable space. A successful practice is defined as one that increases average density on an area. My purposes are to re-view these patterns, supplement them with theoretical considerations on the role of time in interpreting the bobwhite-habitat interface, develop a conceptual model of bobwhite habitat management, show how to apply the model in management, ...

We question whether the growing popularity of model selection based on information theory (IT) and using the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) represent a useful paradigm shift in data analysis or a substitution of 1 statistical ritual for another, which leaves in place long-standing problems in wildlife science. We discuss the relevance of model selection in science, problems in the IT-AIC algorithm, errors of commission and omission in IT-AIC-based studies, and the role of IT-AIC in knowledge accrual. Model selection is just another minor tool in the grand panorama of science. The human mind, not statistical methods, produces scientific breakthroughs. Although IT-AIC might include elements of hypothetico-deductive science, it is arguably a form of sensitivity analysis, magnitude of effects estimation, or simple description as currently applied. Accordingly, it is largely an inductive approach to knowledge accrual and, therefore, subject to the pitfalls of induction. The algorithm tends to over fit data (i.e, use too many variables), resulting in models that contain useless variables and that generalize poorly. Errors of commission in IT-AIC-based papers include hopelessly uninformative lists of encrypted models and imposition of the model-selection approach on studies better executed in a simple, descriptive format. The major error of omission is an almost universal failure to test selected models on independent data. From our perspective, IT-AIC is a harmless human construct that is being ritualistically applied and therefore cannot be expected to correct long-standing problems in the conduct of wildlife science, such as failure to apply the hypothetico-deductive method. We view the growing application of IT-AIC as problematic because that growth might discourage use of the full panoply of available methods of inquiry. Accordingly, we urge colleagues to avail themselves of the rich pageant of available analytical techniques that can be applied in wildlife research under the hypothetico-deductive method and to keep ecology, rather than statistics, in the forefront of wildlife science. JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 69(2):457-465; 2005

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Northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) are one of the most broadly researched and intensively managed species in North America. However, we argue that a disadvantage of this status is that traditional management principles currently are incompatible with the spatial scale necessary to address the nationwide decline in bobwhite abundance. We maintain that halting or reversing this decline will entail 2 principal changes in the scale of management. Primarily we suggest that habitat oversight must switch from historical fine‐scale management (promotion of edge habitat, weedy fencelines, disked strips, living hedges, and food plots) to regional management of usable space. Secondly, within these regional management areas, we should apply harvest management that employs risk‐sensitive strategies that conservatively avoid undermining the primary goal. This entails narrowing the scale of harvest management from statewide to regional levels. If these ideological changes cannot be made and historical policies remain in force, we risk failing to stabilize, let alone increase, bobwhite populations.

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Having become suspicious of telemetry‐based survival rates reported for northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus), we surveyed the published record to determine whether reported survival rates were consistent with empirical expectations of production, for which there exists a vast database. If the production (juvenile/adult) required to stabilize a population at a reported or inferred annual survival rate was ≤7, we deemed the reported survival rate reasonable; otherwise, we deemed it not reasonable. We obtained 58 estimates of survival rates for unique points in space and time; 83% of these were not reasonable (apparently biased low). These results and supporting information strongly suggest (but do not necessarily prove) that radio packages (harness, transmitter, antenna) somehow handicap bobwhites. We recommend that researchers be extremely skeptical of telemetry data, plan telemetry studies such that independent data on population performance are available for comparison with telemetry estimates, and discuss the demographic implications of telemetry estimates. We also suggest that radiotelemetry might not always be appropriate for a given research question and that alternative methods be employed whenever possible.

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