We use transfer entropy to quantify information flows between financial markets and propose a suitable bootstrap procedure for statistical inference. Transfer entropy is a model-free measure designed as the Kullback-Leibler distance of transition probabilities. Our approach allows to determine, measure and test for information transfer without being restricted to linear dynamics. In our empirical application, we examine the importance of the credit default swap market relative to the corporate bond market for the pricing of credit risk. We also analyze the dynamic relation between market risk and credit risk proxied by the VIX and the iTraxx Europe, respectively. We conduct the analyses for pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods.
The trading of securities on multiple markets raises the question of each market’s share in the discovery of the informationally efficient price. We exploit salient distributional features of multivariate financial price processes to uniquely determine these contributions, thereby resolving the main drawback of the widely used Hasbrouck (1995) methodology, which merely provides upper and lower bounds of a market’s information share. We show how tail dependence of price changes, which may emerge as a result of differences in market design, can be exploited to estimate unique information shares. Two empiricalapplications illustrate the practical use of the new methodology.
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AbstractWe use intraday stock index return data from both sides of the Atlantic during overlapping trading hours to analyze the dynamic interactions between European and US stock markets. We are particularly interested in differences of information transmission before, during, and after the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009. Our analysis draws on the concept of Rényi transfer entropy to allow for a flexible and model-free empirical assessment of linear as well as non-linear market dependencies. Thereby the importance of extreme (tail) observations of the return distributions is highlighted. The results show significant bi-directional information transfer between the US and the European markets with a dominant flow from the US market. During the crisis dynamic interactions increase. At the same time information flows from European markets increase. The US market does not entirely regain its leading role in the after crisis period.
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