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a, b , on behalf of the Dutch Hip Fracture Audit (DHFA) Group

Objective: To develop and validate a prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with hip fracture 85 years of age or older undergoing surgery. Design: A multicenter prospective cohort study. Setting: Six Dutch trauma centers, level 2 and 3. Participants: Patients with hip fracture 85 years of age or older undergoing surgery. Intervention: Hip fracture surgery. Main Outcome Measurements: In-hospital mortality. Results: The development cohort consisted of 1014 patients. In-hospital mortality was 4%. Age, male sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, and hemoglobin levels at presentation were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The bootstrap adjusted performance showed good discrimination with a c-statistic of 0.77. Conclusion: Age, male sex, higher American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, and lower hemoglobin levels at presentation are robust independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with geriatric hip fracture and were incorporated in a simple prediction model with good accuracy and no lack of fit. Level of Evidence: Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic caused disruption of regular healthcare leading to reduced hospital attendances, repurposing of surgical facilities, and cancellation of cancer screening programmes. This study aimed to determine the impact of COVID-19 on surgical care in the Netherlands. Methods A nationwide study was conducted in collaboration with the Dutch Institute for Clinical Auditing. Eight surgical audits were expanded with items regarding alterations in scheduling and treatment plans. Data on procedures performed in 2020 were compared with those from a historical cohort (2018–2019). Endpoints included total numbers of procedures performed and altered treatment plans. Secondary endpoints included complication, readmission, and mortality rates. Results Some 12 154 procedures were performed in participating hospitals in 2020, representing a decrease of 13.6 per cent compared with 2018–2019. The largest reduction (29.2 per cent) was for non-cancer procedures during the first COVID-19 wave. Surgical treatment was postponed for 9.6 per cent of patients. Alterations in surgical treatment plans were observed in 1.7 per cent. Time from diagnosis to surgery decreased (to 28 days in 2020, from 34 days in 2019 and 36 days in 2018; P < 0.001). For cancer-related procedures, duration of hospital stay decreased (5 versus 6 days; P < 0.001). Audit-specific complications, readmission, and mortality rates were unchanged, but ICU admissions decreased (16.5 versus 16.8 per cent; P < 0.001). Conclusion The reduction in the number of surgical operations was greatest for those without cancer. Where surgery was undertaken, it appeared to be delivered safely, with similar complication and mortality rates, fewer admissions to ICU, and a shorter hospital stay.