Machine learning (ML) is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using ML algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest (RF) to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new ML model, plan-net, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that yields more accurate inferences than the RF for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use BNNs for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for BNNs that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing ML models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply plan-net to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher-resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.

Objective Assessing risks of bias in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is an important but laborious task when conducting systematic reviews. RobotReviewer (RR), an open-source machine learning (ML) system, semi-automates bias assessments. We conducted a user study of RobotReviewer, evaluating time saved and usability of the tool. Materials and methods Systematic reviewers applied the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool to four randomly selected RCT articles. Reviewers judged: whether an RCT was at low, or high/unclear risk of bias for each bias domain in the Cochrane tool (Version 1); and highlighted article text justifying their decision. For a random two of the four articles, the process was semi-automated: users were provided with ML-suggested bias judgments and text highlights. Participants could amend the suggestions if necessary. We measured time taken for the task, ML suggestions, usability via the System Usability Scale (SUS) and collected qualitative feedback. Results For 41 volunteers, semi-automation was quicker than manual assessment (mean 755 vs. 824 s; relative time 0.75, 95% CI 0.62–0.92). Reviewers accepted 301/328 (91%) of the ML Risk of Bias (RoB) judgments, and 202/328 (62%) of text highlights without change. Overall, ML suggested text highlights had a recall of 0.90 (SD 0.14) and precision of 0.87 (SD 0.21) with respect to the users’ final versions. Reviewers assigned the system a mean 77.7 SUS score, corresponding to a rating between “good” and “excellent”. Conclusions Semi-automation (where humans validate machine learning suggestions) can improve the efficiency of evidence synthesis. Our system was rated highly usable, and expedited bias assessment of RCTs.

Atmospheric retrieval determines the properties of an atmosphere based on its measured spectrum. The low signal-to-noise ratios of exoplanet observations require a Bayesian approach to determine posterior probability distributions of each model parameter, given observed spectra. This inference is computationally expensive, as it requires many executions of a costly radiative transfer (RT) simulation for each set of sampled model parameters. Machine learning (ML) has recently been shown to provide a significant reduction in runtime for retrievals, mainly by training inverse ML models that predict parameter distributions, given observed spectra, albeit with reduced posterior accuracy. Here we present a novel approach to retrieval by training a forward ML surrogate model that predicts spectra given model parameters, providing a fast approximate RT simulation that can be used in a conventional Bayesian retrieval framework without significant loss of accuracy. We demonstrate our method on the emission spectrum of HD 189733 b and find good agreement with a traditional retrieval from the Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) code (Bhattacharyya coefficients of 0.9843–0.9972, with a mean of 0.9925, between 1D marginalized posteriors). This accuracy comes while still offering significant speed enhancements over traditional RT, albeit not as much as ML methods with lower posterior accuracy. Our method is ∼9× faster per parallel chain than BART when run on an AMD EPYC 7402P central processing unit (CPU). Neural-network computation using an NVIDIA Titan Xp graphics processing unit is 90×–180× faster per chain than BART on that CPU.

Objective Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard method for evaluating whether a treatment works in health care but can be difficult to find and make use of. We describe the development and evaluation of a system to automatically find and categorize all new RCT reports. Materials and Methods Trialstreamer continuously monitors PubMed and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, looking for new RCTs in humans using a validated classifier. We combine machine learning and rule-based methods to extract information from the RCT abstracts, including free-text descriptions of trial PICO (populations, interventions/comparators, and outcomes) elements and map these snippets to normalized MeSH (Medical Subject Headings) vocabulary terms. We additionally identify sample sizes, predict the risk of bias, and extract text conveying key findings. We store all extracted data in a database, which we make freely available for download, and via a search portal, which allows users to enter structured clinical queries. Results are ranked automatically to prioritize larger and higher-quality studies. Results As of early June 2020, we have indexed 673 191 publications of RCTs, of which 22 363 were published in the first 5 months of 2020 (142 per day). We additionally include 304 111 trial registrations from the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. The median trial sample size was 66. Conclusions We present an automated system for finding and categorizing RCTs. This yields a novel resource: a database of structured information automatically extracted for all published RCTs in humans. We make daily updates of this database available on our website (https://trialstreamer.robotreviewer.net).

Many tasks with interfaces require entering data accurately, for example, entering patient data in an electronic records system or programming infusion pumps. However, human error is inevitable. Paradoxically, results from cognitive psychology suggest that representing information in a poorer quality format increases the likelihood of memorising the information accurately. This is explained by the dual system account of cognition where slower, more effortful but more accurate thinking is invoked via the poorer quality representation. We present two studies where we transfer these results to the domain of data-entry and show that poorer quality format of to-be-copied information leads to increased accuracy in transcription tasks. Moreover, this is not a consequence of the typical speed-accuracy tradeoffs. The results of our novel approach have implications for the design of data-entry tasks in domains such as healthcare.

IntroductionIdeally, health conditions causing the greatest global disease burden should attract increased research attention. We conducted a comprehensive global study investigating the number of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published on different health conditions, and how this compares with the global disease burden that they impose.MethodsWe use machine learning to monitor PubMed daily, and find and analyse RCT reports. We assessed RCTs investigating the leading causes of morbidity and mortality from the Global Burden of Disease study. Using regression models, we compared numbers of actual RCTs in different health conditions to numbers predicted from their global disease burden (disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)). We investigated whether RCT numbers differed for conditions disproportionately affecting countries with lower socioeconomic development.ResultsWe estimate 463 000 articles describing RCTs (95% prediction interval 439 000 to 485 000) were published from 1990 to July 2020. RCTs recruited a median of 72 participants (IQR 32–195). 82% of RCTs were conducted by researchers in the top fifth of countries by socio-economic development. As DALYs increased for a particular health condition by 10%, the number of RCTs in the same year increased by 5% (3.2%–6.9%), but the association was weak (adjusted R2=0.13). Conditions disproportionately affecting countries with lower socioeconomic development, including respiratory infections and tuberculosis (7000 RCTs below predicted) and enteric infections (9700 RCTs below predicted), appear relatively under-researched for their disease burden. Each 10% shift in DALYs towards countries with low and middle socioeconomic development was associated with a 4% reduction in RCTs (3.7%–4.9%). These disparities have not changed substantially over time.ConclusionResearch priorities are not well optimised to reduce the global burden of disease. Most RCTs are produced by highly developed countries, and the health needs of these countries have been, on average, favoured.

Objective Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard method for evaluating whether a treatment works in healthcare, but can be difficult to find and make use of. We describe the development and evaluation of a system to automatically find and categorize all new RCT reports. Materials and Methods Trialstreamer, continuously monitors PubMed and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), looking for new RCTs in humans using a validated classifier. We combine machine learning and rule-based methods to extract information from the RCT abstracts, including free-text descriptions of trial populations, interventions and outcomes (the 'PICO') and map these snippets to normalised MeSH vocabulary terms. We additionally identify sample sizes, predict the risk of bias, and extract text conveying key findings. We store all extracted data in a database which we make freely available for download, and via a search portal, which allows users to enter structured clinical queries. Results are ranked automatically to prioritize larger and higher-quality studies. Results As of May 2020, we have indexed 669,895 publications of RCTs, of which 18,485 were published in the first four months of 2020 (144/day). We additionally include 303,319 trial registrations from ICTRP. The median trial sample size in the RCTs was 66. Conclusions We present an automated system for finding and categorising RCTs. This yields a novel resource: A database of structured information automatically extracted for all published RCTs in humans. We make daily updates of this database available on our website (trialstreamer.robotreviewer.net).

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